Jose Reyes’ stock has certainly taken a wild ride over the last three seasons. After spending the 2006-2008 seasons battling Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins for “top shortstop” honors and playoff spots, Reyes missed nearly all of 2009 and failed to recapture the spotlight in 2010. A respectable season for a predictably mediocre Mets team likely would have made him trade bait. However, Reyes has complicated the situation by absolutely dominating this season, posting 5.3 WAR to date, good for third in Major League Baseball. At the heart of the problem lies Reyes’ imminent free agency. Receiving insufficient compensation for Reyes’ departure would constitute a significant setback for the Mets. By one school of thought, the Mets need to keep Reyes as the centerpiece of their rebuilding effort around whom fans can rally. By another, this threat is only greater incentive to trade Reyes and restock the farm system. However, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported on Wednesday that the Mets are certain they will not trade Reyes at the July 31^st trade deadline. The announcement that Reyes will definitely not be traded suggests that he will remain a Met for several years to come.

The Mets should definitely have enough money to make a competitive offer. Despite the Mets’ financial woes, their payroll commitments for next year do not include Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez, Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, or, of course, Jose Reyes, who amounted to $62 million of the Mets’ Opening Day payroll. Some of that decrease will be washed out by arbitration raises, but the Mets should easily have $50-55 million to spend if they so desire. If the Wilpons’ financial troubles do force the team to cut payroll dramatically—say, by $20 million—they will still have $30-35 million to spend, most likely on middle infielders, a right fielder, and pitching help. The Mets will spend that money somewhere, and few free agents fit as naturally as the incumbent star. With Rickie Weeks and Jose Bautista off the market, the Mets’ other positions of need offer little star power. Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder could make some sense, but it would mean that the Mets are giving up on the promising Ike Davis. Among the top free agents, only CC Sabathia, assuming he opts out of his current contract, fits as naturally. Still, given the choice between a relationship-aided negotiation with Reyes and a bidding war against the Yankees for Sabathia, the Mets would likely prefer the former. The impending slack in the Mets’ budget and the shortage of viable alternatives actually make Reyes the most reasonable target for the Mets this winter.

Furthermore, if the Mets are not willing to pay Reyes top dollar, it is inconceivable that the front office does not recognize the opportunity to sell high. Aside from his value to the Mets’ brand, nearly every aspect of Reyes’ season suggests this is the perfect time to trade him. Needless to say, Reyes is having an MVP-caliber season, the best of his career, on a mediocre team. He plays a premium position at which he figures to remain through his prime, which is only beginning. His offensive numbers rely heavily on an insane .375 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), which his statistically oriented front office must know will regress. He benefits from phenomenal publicity that rarely mentions that inevitable regression. In short, Reyes is outperforming his already impressive true talent—in theory, an easy recipe for attracting top prospects in a trade. Throw in the fact that the expiring collective bargaining agreement could jeopardize the Mets’ draft pick compensation if Reyes leaves, and there are just too many sensible reasons to trade him rather than let him leave via free agency. Of course, declaring these factors obvious could be overestimating the Mets’ front office, but it seems more likely that they just have no intention of letting Reyes leave.

It is difficult, then, to imagine a scenario where the Mets refuse to trade Reyes but lack confidence that he will stay in Queens. This seems ironic after Fred Wilpon’s recent disparaging remarks, but Reyes has always expressed pride to play for the Mets and evidently has a budding positive relationship with the new front office. Still, there is no getting around the fact that a deadline trade would benefit the Mets more than keeping him for just half a season more. One must wonder, then, about the source of the Mets’ optimism toward re-signing their coveted commodity. It is entirely possible—though purely speculative—that the negotiations are already beginning and that Reyes may not bother to test the open market at all.

Lance Gurewitz is currently a sophmore at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. You can read and discuss his baseball analysis and other sports musings in 140 characters or less by following @LanceWG42 on Twitter

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Last year, it was the Washington Nationals and the Jayson Werth deal. This year at the Baseball Winter Meetings, the bar was on Sunday when the Miami Marlins signed Mets free-agent shortstop Jose Reyes to a 6-year, $106 million deal, pending a physical.

The deal is significant on a number of levels. The Marlins, who are now flush with revenues before their new ballpark opens this spring, are clearly trying to make a (no pun intended) splash. With the signing, they make that move, of what could be more.

In terms of the structure, we don’t know how much Reyes will be paid annually, but based on the numbers, the annual average value (AAV) of the deal  is $17,666,667, ranking him as the second highest paid shortstop in MLB by AAV behind only Derek Jeter’s 3-year contract with options reached last year (AAV of $18.9 million). According to Jeff Euston of Cot’s Contracts, he will become the 27th highest-paid player in-between Ken Griffey Jr. $116.5 million 2000-08 deal and Kevin Brown’s $105 million 1999-2005 contract. It does not have a no-trade clause. The deal is technically $102 million over six years with a $4 million buyout.

But, whether it is now the trend, or the only way the Marlins could make the deal work, the risk in the deal is its length. As Joel Sherman notes, 6 years is 972 games. Here is the Reyes’ DL stints, courtesy of the Daily News and other sources:

2003: Placed on the 15-day DL on Sept. 5 with a Grade 2 left ankle sprain that ends his season.

2004: Placed on the 15-day DL on March 15 with a strained right hamstring, which keeps him sidelined until June 19.

2009: Playing with a right calf strain, Reyes leaves game on May 21 after aggravating injury. Placed on the 15-day DL, does not return that season. Leaves a minor-league rehab assignment game on June 3 with what is called "discomfort in his right calf."

--The next day, the Mets announce that Reyes has a tear in his right hamstring tendon.
-- The Mets announce on Oct. 5 that Reyes will have offseason surgery to clean up scar tissue around the hamstring tendon.

2010: Placed on 15-day DL with hyperactive thyroid, reinstated April 10.

--On June 30, suffers a injury to right side in batting practice, misses six games.

-- On July 10, he re-aggravates injury, does not return until July 20.

--Removed from a game on Aug. 26 after aggravating oblique injury. Does not return until Sept. 10.

2011: Placed on 15-day DL for hamstring injury on July 7 misses 12 games.

-- Aug 8, placed on 15-day DL for left hamstring, comes back on Aug 28.

Finally, watch how the deal is finally structured. As of now, we only know total years and dollars. It is possible that the contract will be frontloaded – larger salary early in the contract as the Marlins have more money to play with, than in later years. That could be good or bad. It’s good in that if Reyes does hit the injured list often, the Marlins will be in a position to move him easier. It’s bad in that if attendance doesn’t hold, or if the Marlins continues to spend aggressively in free agency this off-season on high-cost talent, the club could be constrained.

Bottom line, the deal is a gamble in terms of length. Reyes showed that he’s the premiere plum of the shortstop crop this off-season.

Maury Brown is the Founder and President of the Business of Sports Network, which includes The Biz of Baseball, The Biz of Football, The Biz of Basketball and The Biz of Hockey, and is a contributor to Forbes SportsMoney blog.. He is available as a freelance writer. Brown's full bio is here. He looks forward to your comments via email and can be contacted through the Business of Sports Network (select his name in the dropdown provided).

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