When looking at attendance for sporting events, there are a number of factors in play: how large is the corporate base in the host city, is the team part of the community fabric over time, and of course, is the team winning on the field.

But, core population is a factor. Or maybe it should be said, a core “driving” factor.

When the Montreal Expos were up for relocation, the league asked prospective markets about the size of their market and how many professional sports teams were in the market – the population base per franchise. But, in digging deeper, distance from a ballpark has an effect.

It’s no secret that the location and distance from Tropicana Field has been one of the reasons said that attendance for the Rays has been woeful. Owner Stuart Sternberg is seeking a new ballpark in a location that will get them closer to the urban core. But, is that really the case?

Thomas Kelsey contacted me with data based off the 2000 census showing the population around current, future, and potential MLB markets based on minutes from the ballpark location. Indeed, the Rays have the smallest population core nearest to the ballpark (270,000 at 15 min) and 380,000 at 30 min.

At the same time, there are some with the same issue nearby that have seen incredible attendance growth over the last few years. The Texas Rangers have 280,000 within 15 min. and 560,000 within 30 minutes, but from there, it changes. Attendance jumps to 1.1 million at 25 minutes away compared to just 470,000 for the same distance from The Trop. It’s not until you get 50 minutes away from Tropicana Field that you find a massive population spike. The difference? Rangers drew 2,946,949 (avg. 36,382) and ranked 10 out of 30 in attendance. Rays had 1,476,792 (average of 18,232), or just less than half the amount the Rangers pulled in.

If there is a concern for the likes of the Rays or A’s, at least in terms of population, there are other markets that have larger core population bases. Of course, relocation comes with a host of other issues, none the least of which encroaching on a club’s physical or television territory.

But, location isn’t everything. Just ask the Mets who through a period of losing and an economic pounding from ownership’s relation to Bernie Madoff, have the league’s ballpark with the second largest core population near it ranked 14th overall in attendance (total of 2,378,549 or an avg of 30,108). By comparison, the Phillies, who led the league in attendance this year had 620,000 within 15 min, compared to 2.09 million within the same distance to Citi Field.

But, maybe the best statement on attendance comes by way of the Brewers. The club in baseball’s smallest market ranked 7th overall in total attendance this year (3,071,373) have 520,000 within 15 minutes of Miller Park, and 2.03 million within an hour. Compare that to the Tigers, who ranked 13th overall in attendance (total of 2,642,045), who have 2.27 million… within 30 minutes of Comerica Park

Select READ MORE to see data population data in 10 different incremental measurements based on time from ballparks, along with data for the likes of Newark, Las Vegas, Portland, Charlotte, and more.

Click to see in larger view

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Maury Brown is the Founder and President of the Business of Sports Network, which includes The Biz of Baseball, The Biz of Football, The Biz of Basketball and The Biz of Hockey, and is a contributor to Forbes SportsMoney blog.. He is available as a freelance writer. Brown's full bio is here. He looks forward to your comments via email and can be contacted through the Business of Sports Network (select his name in the dropdown provided).

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Comments (5)

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More quibbles for you
written by El Duder, October 12, 2011

Awesome chart, I applaud you and Thomas Kesley on the data, very succinct and informative. However, either in the chart or the article there is a mistake; the Rangers have 1.77 million within 30 minutes compared to the Rays 670k. In fact, the second lowest core would belong to the Pirates and even they draw from a core almost twice as big as the Rays.

Just on this chart alone, the data proves that location would definitely be a top 3 problem with the Rays.

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Great stuff, thanks Thomas and Maury
written by GregP, October 12, 2011

With some cities making a concerted effort at infill this past decade, I'd be very curious to see the 2010 census data on this when it becomes available.

I'm also curious about the effects of having a large employment base near the ballpark - I think this can positively influence the weekday gate (and possibly suite sales as well). That might be more difficult to measure though.

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written by David McCullough, October 12, 2011

Interesting article, as I'm living in NE Ohio.

Last summer on a national talk show the kids running it took their que from Peter Gammons and said that Cleveland could not support a baseball team. Their overriding reason - there were 5-10% LESS people living in Clveland in 2011 then there were 100 years earlier. And to them it was a slam dunk - get the team out.

But what they missed is that the surrounding NE Ohio area is around the 17th largest media market in the country. Yes, people leave the inner city, but they move to suburbs and surrounding country.

I lived in LA for 25 years and know that most people use vehicles to get to sporting events, and it's usually a 30-45 minute ride even of they live quite a distance away. 100 years ago people did not have vehicles that easily ran at 60 MPH.

My point is not just Cleveland.

I don't think those statistics show much of value by themselves. Some cities like Cleveland, Detroit and LA have few people that can spend the high amount it now takes to see a MLB game living near their parks. They get their attendence from outside the immediate area. Other cities like Chicago and Boston still have people with spendable dollars that live near the parks.

Bottom line - most existing MLB areas will support a winning team. Tampa Bay has not, and that's a giant red flag.

As a person that grew up in NE Ohio loving the Indians and baseball, it would be wonderful to see MLB contract the Indians and have the Rays move up into Progressive Field. Cleveland fans have ALWAYS supported contending teams (the Browns and Cavs have sold out the past 2 seasons without having championship contending teams). The difficulty in Cleveland is an ownership that will not spend, and a front office that gladhandles and schmoozes the national media, but has been horrific for over 10 years now in putting together a team that doesn't throw the ball all over the field, run themselves out of innings, and choke in the clutch...hitting, pitching...you name it.

Would love to see the Rays move in!

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Born in St Pete but in support of move to Tampa
written by Gary Porter, October 12, 2011

Not sure what the background of writer, Mr. Brown, is but what he needs to know is that the make-up of the population of Tampa is much different from the St Pete's population make-up. Tampa is younger, wealthier and more native than the old, fixed-income, snow birds in St Pete. Downtown Tampa would be a winner...It just takes an encouraging owner like Jeff Vinik (of the Lightning) to do it AND a good economic recovery. All of the bay area has been hurt by the housing collapse. Tampa may recover sooner than St Pete though. I'm in support of Build it downtown Tampa.

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Downtown Tampa Not the Answer
written by Doc Fisch, October 14, 2011

Having driven to the downtown Tampa sites, particularly the Forum, congestion is unbearable and parking is a bear! On a Sunday for a Forum event the backup was 2-3 miles at a crawl, imagine the nightmare during the week! In contrast I've never had a more than 5 or 6 block crawl at the Trop, even during the World Series when the Trop was sold out.

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