federal law regarding free credit reports do disputes show on credit report view your credit report freeware once year get your credit report freeware canada transunion credit report agency address identity theft report to credit bureau what is the highest score on a credit report transunion credit report for business free credit report 3 companies fixing your credit report yourself how to build how to establish credit history in canada totally free credit report no credit card needed gov annual credit reports free how to remove irs tax lien from credit report ordering equifax credit report phone 3 free credit reports experian credit report free trial other guys free credit report com commercial violette disputing items on my credit report best credit score reporting company dispute where do you get a free credit report online what is the best website to get a free credit report one credit report free per year how much does a credit report cost credit repair solutions llc often does equifax update credit reports true credit report.com review free credit report dot band wiki how to cancel credit report from transunion fair credit reporting act dispute letters remove paid collection from credit report letter credit repair best airline airline miles credit cards reviews my one free credit report per year get free credit report all bureaus long does consumer proposal stay credit report credit reports 360 bad credit rating lasoo catalogues credit reporting laws florida form letter credit reports dispute consumer complaints agency under fair credit reporting act credit reports and credit scores get my transunion credit report free corporation credit report free equifax credit report login how to get a credit report in canada how to report bad credit landlord 3 credit report free per year one time credit report and credit score equifax phone number order free credit report disclosure and authorization pertaining to consumer reports pursuant to the fair credit reporting act free equifax credit report business free credit report without providing credit card info ordering credit reports by mail do payday loans report to credit bureaus credit report codes difference in credit report and credit score order credit report easy credit credit cards for bad credit credit bureau dispute letter midland credit management credit report how to unfreeze credit report how dog i report a delinquent account to a credit reporting agency unable to view credit report online get free report without card information personal solutions credit reports fair credit report act authorization form restoring how to fix credit after identity theft fair credit credit cards repairing credit report where can i find the free credit report songs who is allowed to see your credit report fair bad credit credit cards canada amex complimentary 30-day credit score & report how to read innovis credit report letter of explanation regarding inquiries on credit report where can i get a credit report best credit reports companies can collection agency remove debt credit report equifax credit report for landlord best credit report providers credit report contact phone numbers consumer consumer report canada magazine credit report problems view all credit reports free equifax phone numbers all credit reporting agencies free annual credit report from all three bureaus corelogic credco credit report equifax free credit report denied credit federal trade commission building better credit report installment loans that report to credit bureau get a credit report without a credit card transunion address for credit report government credit reports free what is the best way to dispute a credit report free annual credit report government approved free credit report for business gov free credit reports and fico scores first american credit reporting agencies where should i go to check my credit score bill me later credit check reporting download free credit report commercials us government credit report free how to get free credit report once a year financial annual credit report security freeze credit report dispute online or. mail where can i get all three credit reports free online capital cash loan reviews how to get how to check credit history in canada get credit reports bankruptcy dismissal and credit report unlimited 3 bureau credit reports get your transunion credit report free 30 days free credit report score where to get your credit report free annual federal section 2.8 of the credit reporting code of conduct equifax canada credit report for business how to view my credit report for free how do you remove negative items from credit report vote new free credit report band free credit report dispute letters how do you get things taken off your credit report how to get your credit report free canada transunion single credit report and score is my employment history on my credit report how to check credit report for business how do i fix my credit report fast obtaining credit report minor child how to see credit report for freeware how to order your credit report by phone free 3 in 1 credit report and triple credit score how to check my credit card balance in hdfc military free credit report govt website free credit report get get free credit report illinois safe request credit report mail credit reporting companies addresses can block access my credit report how do i dispute information on my experian credit report how do you get your credit report in canada annual credit report clark howard add consumer statement credit report where is my credit score on credit report get free credit score report government sample letter remove charge off credit report free credit report commercials 2010 credit card debt help forums credit repair scams canada access my credit report free what is included in a credit report real my free credit report government new credit report laws 2011 ordering a credit report on someone best review your credit report how to unfreeze my equifax credit report will getting my credit report hurt my credit challenge something your credit report credit repair attorney san diego ca experian small business credit reports federal credit report gov ftc facts how to dispute credit report errors fixing your credit report free where can i get a detailed credit report trw credit report wiki news articles about credit reports bankruptcy credit report reading credit reports experian credit report no credit card needed credit suisse wealth report 2012 check credit reports free all rights free credit report affiliate program reporting credit card sales to irs what is the report on public credit in 1790 what are the three major credit report companies templates for dispute letter on credit report credit report how to obtain dispute collection items on credit report potentially negative information credit reports often can request my credit report free credit report commercial new i need all 3 credit reports for free free report business credit scores get copy your credit report free definition of delinquency on credit report best place to purchase credit report best credit report monitoring service consumer report collection agency credit report remove repair your credit jack tv for free reviews can obtain free credit report how to check your credit report in canada fico score and report for all 3 reports personal solutions credit how do you get an actual free credit report credit report error lawsuit consumer credit protection act south africa why did the free credit report band leave consumer reports and credit karma american express corporate card personal credit report fair credit reporting act copy of credit report get my one free credit report actual free credit report once year moody;s credit rating reports how to view your credit report online for free federal credit report annual free order tri bureau credit report usaa credit report service obtain free credit report nj will capital one remove late payments from credit report best way to repair what is the credit score rating scale negative credit report fall off credit score reports do you need credit report rent house sample letter dispute information credit report experian phone number for free credit report advance america cash advance corporate office phone number free credit report gov uk lenders how to dispute an item on your credit report equifax totally free credit report once a year bureaus mailing address experian credit reporting agency state ca free credit report credit report with names of free credit report companies how to report report to credit bureau canada how to check ur credit report a real free credit report annual credit report from transunion small business credit report removing negative information from your credit report place freeze your credit report clean my credit report now detailed credit report scores free debt report after denied credit equifax free capital report experian denied credit fair credit reporting act disclosure statement authorization how to free report credit scores bureaus free credit report phone lyrics how to get a free annual credit report in canada address to dispute experian credit report by mail request free credit report denied credit equifax how to fix your credit history consumer credit reporting how to remove employment history on credit report free credit reports instantly free credit report three one annual credit report login page what does installment debt mean on your credit report expedia credit report contact number equifax credit report email address consumer reports best business credit cards the p&a partnership creditor portal free annual credit report federal credit report for tenant screening free annual credit report information credit report completely free govt website free report credit score credit reports free without credit card reading equifax credit report codes how to get credit report for free experian credit report free online how many years until bankruptcy comes off credit report fair credit reporting act notice how do i pull a credit report on a tenant long do charge offs stay your credit report transunion annual credit report order detailed credit report my actual free credit report check credit card balance chase often do credit reporting agencies update information i need to get my credit report landlord credit report canada how do i get negative information off my credit report when does my credit report get updated free credit report ads consumers catchy what is a credit score what are the major credit reporting agencies how do u get your free credit report each year gov credit report best place buy credit report expirian credit report how to fix a credit score under 500 how long do delinquencies stay on credit report free credit report cheap chase checking account check your credit report do you need credit report government best credit repair information do prepaid credit cards reported to the credit agencies information services credit reporting agencies free credit report.com pirate song lyrics your credit report shows a serious delinquency free credit report sites legit how do i get a free credit report from the government long does late credit card payment stay your credit report consumer reports annual credit report business check my credit score equifax check all 3 credit scores reports annual credit report review can get free credit report canada agencies consumer reports credit reporting agencies free credit repair guide by mail 2 credit bureau report with the 3 credit score option credit report credit score monitoring free credit report employment history transunion credit reporting lawsuit how long is a foreclosure on your credit report how to remove a paid collection item from credit report what is a good credit report score fair credit reporting act agency files credit report without credit card information union loans how to read reading a credit report score best website check credit report best way get credit report canada police credit union annual report 2010 free report commercial lyrics car credit scores free transunion credit reporting credit report help desk derogatory credit report means how do you put a lock on your credit report how to get your credit report corrected how do i get all 3 credit reports ofac alert on credit report equifax free credit report usa top credit report myfico define credit report credit agricole group annual report 2011 difference between credit report credit score credit reports for free no credit card if i dispute credit report 3 bureau credit report addresses instant credit shoe repair findlay ohio does rent a center report to credit agencies free business equifax free annual credit report online experian bad credit personal loans report credit bureaus corporate credit reports canada challenge my credit report ftc free credit report parody change my employer my credit report how long do negative reports stay on credit report what is my credit report score how doo i freeze my credit report prevent paid credit report score free credit federal government report online experian credit report 2 pounds official site get annual free credit report annualcreditreport cash advance no credit no credit check no bank account payday loan what type of information is found on a credit report tri merged credit report unsecured personal bad credit loans dallas tx summary of rights under the federal fair credit reporting act how long does a consumer proposal stay on your credit report does landlord see your credit report poor credit credit reports government free yearly free annual credit report from all 3 bureaus dispute experian credit report by mail credit freeze experian experian mail credit report fair credit reporting act employer investigation dispute experian credit report phone cbcinnovis credit reports annual report federal law credit score free tenant credit report and background check free credit card report without credit card sample letter to request credit reports experian credit report for business how dog you check your credit report free how often to credit reports get updated how to obtain a copy of your credit report for free landlords checking credit reports what information does a credit report contain how long do derogatory accounts stay on your credit report free annual credit report login credit repair organizations act croa us credit report credit repair loan how do i pay off debt on my credit report transunion credit report coupon codes which credit reporting company is better delete negative info credit report request correction of an error in a credit report does capital one report credit how do i get wrong information off of my credit report credit report for a business what is charged off as bad debt on credit report credit report credit score online bad credit history car leasing deals what is the best report monitoring service credit scores free credit report member log in credit report veda the only truly free credit report discount no credit check payday advances how to get free credit reports and scores how to request free credit report credit report fico free dispute credit report online equifax what does government mandated mean free credit report website government mandated annual credit report credit report company should use experian credit reporting service does getting my credit report hurt my score top three credit reporting agency how to remove capital one charge off from credit report credit report.com safe is it illegal to run a credit report on someone else request free credit report experian payday loans not on credit report long does judgment stay my credit report do checking accounts show up on credit reports m ecoa credit report experian login credit report annual credit report transunion login my free report through government each credit how do i order credit reports small cash loans with no credit check credit suisse global wealth report 2010 pdf get free credit bureau report new credit score ranges 2012 how to report a bad tenant to the credit bureaus free credit report band search commercial clear your credit report canada credit report dispute letter addresses contact credit reporting agencies directly certified credit report personal loans get free credit report all three correct credit report errors experian anderson financial credit report 22) what is the timeframe for removing negative credit information with the exception of bankruptcies from a credit report free report business credit scores checks business credit report experian uk corporate credit reporting agencies incorrect information on your credit report equifax international credit reports credit report three free credit report define how to access your cibil credit information report newest free credit report song lyrics does an eviction notice show on your credit report sample letter to remove credit report inquiry equifax credit report phone number how long will a delinquency stay on my credit report hard inquiry credit report removal the only unofficial free credit report free credit report commercial new car dot best free credit score reports remove hard inquiries off credit report get free credit report wikipedia annual credit report website legit entitled one free credit report per year credit report employment fair credit reporting act form accuracy passage home insurance credit report free credit report through irs annualcreditreport safe way get free credit report how to get a free credit report at transunion does credit repair does garcinia cambogia work yahoo answers free credit report experian canada agencies get your yearly credit report free best way to get a copy of credit report what is the free annual credit report website how to get a good credit score free credit report dot songs lyrics is annual credit report online safe review credit report websites capital one credit report limit annual credit report texas free credit report from government annually credit check free online australia letter requesting credit reports only free credit annualcreditreport report get credit report alerts identity theft what is the best credit score report site much does credit report cost what are inquiries on your credit report negative credit report items free landlord credit reports credit karma in canada triple advantage free credit report equifax view credit report again view your experian credit report how do i get free credit report once a year my credit report through government one free how do i read a trans union credit report how do i read my transunion credit report how long before credit report is updated report credit card fraud how to run my own credit report fair reporting act free report major credit free credit report.com band elite hargrave and associates credit repair scam three credit agency report free business my free credit report and score how to get a credit report canada length bankruptcy credit report canada remove closed credit card credit report how do i get free credit report from transunion how do i buy my credit report order credit report over phone three companies credit report best company to monitor credit report consumer reports best credit repair service freecreditreport.com free credit report and credit score online by experian.url get your free credit report / no credit card get free financial report denied credit how do i dispute a debt on my transunion credit report kpmg credit union report
Home Lance Gurewitz Adrian Beltre: Division Changer?

Like Shoot to Thrill - An AC/DC Tribute on Facebook!

An authentic tribute of AC/DC that covers the best of the Bon Scott era and the best of Brian Johnson's material

Who's Online?

We have 672 guests online

Atom RSS

Adrian Beltre: Division Changer? PDF Print E-mail
User Rating: / 16
PoorBest 
Lance Gurewitz Article Archive
Written by Lance Gurewitz   
Friday, 07 January 2011 14:18
Beltre with Daniels
Beltre with Jon Daniels on the day he was signed with the Rangers

The following is the first of possibly many more articles by Lance Gurewitz for The Biz of Baseball. -- Maury Brown


Every so often, an available or recently acquired player gains the label of “division changer” from the media. It has always seemed to me that the idea that a given player, no matter how talented, is a “division changer” is little more than rhetoric that is music to an agent’s ears. After all, a player without the potential to change a division to some extent—that is, make his team more likely to win said division—would not be one that commands a multi-year deal as a free agent or a bounty of prospects in a trade. Thus, while the term may be apt to some degree, it also seems somewhat redundant.

There is one situation, however, where the distinction may take on some additional meaning, and it just so happens to be a situation in which Adrian Beltre—the most recent player to seemingly be labeled a division changer—had found himself this winter. The scenario in question occurs when more than one team in a single division targets the same player. Before Beltre agreed to join the reigning American League champion Rangers, the up-and-coming Athletics and now quickly fading Angels seemed to be close enough to the Rangers that a big year from Beltre could truly shift the balance of power in favor of his new team. With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the five-year, $80-million (plus a vesting option) Beltre signing means for each of these teams.

The simplest place to start is in Oakland, where Beltre clearly had no desire to play, rebuffing the A’s for the second consecutive offseason despite a bid that was most recently reported to have reached six years and $76 million. As big contracts go, this one may have been palatable for the A’s, but it likely would have maxed out their payroll after arbitration raises to Josh Willingham, Kevin Kouzmanoff (though he likely would have been traded), and Conor Jackson. Beltre is a clear upgrade over Kouzmanoff at third base, but Fangraphs has the latter consistently providing over 2.5 WAR for the last five years, making Beltre somewhat more of a luxury than a dire need. Between that and the similarity in dimensions between Oakland’s Network Associates Coliseum and Seattle’s Safeco Field—where Beltre produced wOBAs of .332, .333, .302, and .297 as a Mariner—I’m inclined to think that the A’s will be content with missing out on Beltre and enjoy their financial flexibility when their talented young core hits arbitration.

Missing out on a third baseman of Beltre’s caliber is a much bigger problem, however, for a team whose total production from the position was below replacement level. Unwillingness to offer $142 million to Carl Crawford was understandable, as the contract is risky and the Angels outfield, while not stellar, is certainly competent. Replacing an average or quality player with a star entails some attentive cost-benefit analysis, as we will see below. However, when a team gets literally zero production from a position and a premium free agent is available at that position, that’s the time to spend. The Angels reportedly offered $70 million over five years, which may have been a nice starting point for negotiations, but Beltre was such painfully obvious fit for the Angels. They could have easily matched the Rangers’ offer and looked much more sensible than they did when they dominated the market by offering Torii Hunter $90 million for five years back in 2007. Years five and six of the Beltre contract may not be bargains, but for years one and two of his deal with the Rangers, the Angels are looking less and less like contenders.

Finally, now that we’ve examined the impact Beltre has on the teams that didn’t sign him, let’s take a look at the one that actually did. First, we can get an idea of what kind of production the Rangers expect from Beltre (measured in WAR), making sure to account for the growth of MLB revenues and salaries. Based on articles by both Dave Cameron of Fangraphs and J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics, I’ve concluded that a realistic but unaggressive projection of revenue growth is 5% per year. Using this and the 2010 value of one fWAR, which is $5 million, we can estimate how many wins above replacement value Beltre should generate to justify his contract. (I’ll assume the sixth year is picked up.)

2011: $14 million, $5.25MM/fWAR = 2.7 fWAR
2012: $15 million, $5.5MM/fWAR = 2.7 fWAR
2013: $16 million, $5.8MM/fWAR = 2.8 fWAR
2014: $17 million, $6.1MM/fWAR = 2.8 fWAR
2015: $18 million, $6.4MM/fWAR = 2.8 fWAR
2016:
$16 million, $6.7MM/fWAR = 2.4 fWAR

SELECT READ MORE TO SEE THE REST OF THIS ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Clearly, if the salary growth projection holds, the Rangers are very far from paying Beltre to be a superstar. Beltre has been reliable for this kind of production throughout his career. With a glove that is nothing short of stellar by all accounts, Beltre exhibits volatility only with his bat. However, with his 2010 performance and the way his offensive numbers seem so significantly damaged by Safeco Field (away from which he was still an above average hitter as a Mariner according to wRC+), he appears more than capable of exceeding his contract value, even if his production is somewhat front-loaded.

However, while that analysis is suitable for Beltre’s contract in a vacuum, it is important to analyze the net impact of signing Beltre, which includes Michael Young’s position change and the near certainty that Vladimir Guerrero will not return to the Rangers. To analyze transactions like this, I find it helpful to list the qualitative gains and losses before trying to assign them more tangible values. For example, Beltre’s defense is a clear upgrade over Young’s, Beltre’s contract is more expensive than the one Vlad (or a similar DH) will sign, and the difference between Beltre and Guerrero’s offensive values can go either way, though the edge probably goes to Beltre. In other words, the Rangers sacrificed future financial flexibility, took on some long-term risk, and surrendered their first-round draft pick. In exchange, they acquired an elite defender who should upgrade their offense, indirectly adds flexibility to their bench, and could have otherwise been a significant upgrade for a division rival. Ultimately, then, the question is whether those tradeoffs have a net benefit to the Rangers that is worth what they paid to acquire Beltre.

It seems to me that the benefits here outweigh the costs for the Rangers. Based on UZR of the past several years, the upgrade from Young to Beltre at the hot corner should easily produce between one and two extra WAR. It’s doubtful that Beltre will regress to the type of hitter he was in Safeco Field, meaning that Texas’ offense should at least break even and has potential for significant improvement based on Beltre’s 2010 performance. Last year, the offensive RAR difference between the two was 15, making another half-win based on offense very realistic. This brings us to a reasonable estimate of a 1.5-WAR ($7.9 million) increase by signing Beltre. The fact that Beltre’s most notable suitors were division rivals, as well as the Rangers’ place on the marginal win curve—where every game counts significantly for their playoff hopes—add value that is a bit harder to quantify but is certainly significant. I’ll treat the increase as an extra half-win, or $2.6 million, although it is almost certainly much more. Add in the fact that the Rangers are using Beltre to replace a player who cost $6.5 million last season and subtract the value of the lost draft pick (also, coincidentally, $6.5 million), and we can very conservatively conclude that the Rangers added at least $10 million in value to their 2011 team.

Is it possible that the Rangers overpaid, then? Indeed, it may turn out that the Rangers would have been better off with smaller financial commitments to less notable—but perhaps underrated—names. Nevertheless, there are many opportunities for Beltre’s value to exceed this approximation. These include his offensive upside in a hitters’ park, increased value of the Rangers’ marginal win, his absence on the rosters of division rivals, greater revenue/salary growth than projected here, and positive signaling to fans. With all of those potential benefits, I’m inclined to believe the Rangers have a chance to be much more than merely content with their newest acquisition. When Texas is listed as the AL West favorite again this season, with the A’s just a bit short of star power and the Angels looking irrelevant after a very questionable offseason, Adrian Beltre will be no small part of the reason why.

 
 
Banner

Poll

Should MLB Force Jeffery Loria to Sell the Marlins?