can you get high off amantadine viagra pricing costco shuddha guggulu where can i buy it periactin syrup ingredients buy suhagra online buy eulexin online with mastercard procardia medication online imiquimod side effects skin cancer tesco ireland pharmacy jobs where can i order clonidine calcium carbonate in the uk generic hoodia safe long term effects prednisone cats can u buy clomid over the counter brand viagra precio mexico buy tofranil fast shipping sustiva for sale philippines cialis professional online bestellen luvox online without prescription tadacip rx gonorrhea treatment zithromax dosage cognitive enhancement drugs in the workplace lithium online sales canadian alliance for community service learning website csl pariet price india cleocin tablet sale how long to use fosamax can you get high off benadryl liquid gels crestor in italia what are the side effects of proventil hfa florida voveran sr what is amoxil used for where can i buy cephalexin tablets where cane i buy clomid from protonix reviews for men vipps certified online pharmacy generic name for atrovent evecare legal in england sinequan tablets on line to buy toprol xl discount medications benicar prescription assistance program propecia with no prescription levitra 10 mg for sale viagra preisvergleich generika elavil online bestellen sinequan dosage instructions comprar levitra plus original en madrid crestor commercial beach purchase vasotec on line in usa make liquid viagra drink mail-order isoptin allopurinol drugstore.com dipyridamole to buy from europe aldactone side effects in men zithromax on line purchase metformin pills smell like fish eric harris columbine luvox cheap fluoxetine hydrochloride cialis 40 mg generic cheap allopurinol pills gout is generic viagra available in the united states do i need a prescription for oxytrol levitra reviews vardenafil zovirax price india what does deltasone dog aldactone for dogs buy astelin nasal spray generic order allegra online no prescription pharmacy metronidazole 500mg tab dosage can you buy accutane from canada buy remeron without a script what is ranitidine used for in babies prescription aciphex cost where can i buy baby alligators buy motilium online with mastercard wellbutrin sr drug schedule cholestoplex medication pharmacy generic generic isoniazid in usa revia on line for sale no script where propecia grows hair where can i get some zyprexa ranitidine mg no prescription abilify dosage for bipolar 2 roche xenical 120 mg side effects acheter du viagra en ligne can you buy revatio discount counter healthy diet 30 year old man propranolol tablets 10mg patient information what does mean allegra name zentel prospect copii alesse usa cvs prices risperdal free shipping cheap viagra paypal payment lipitor mexico prescription buy cheap generic abana buy zenegra from mexico online venta viagra generica best price for flonase sinequan drug classification evista com coupon best place order viagra online canada buy cheap aciclovir medication order kamagra gold spain costco milton keynes opticians without a script cabana online buy moduretic paypal maxifort zimax sildenafil efectos secundarios order reglan oral solution compare prescription prices cvs walgreens tetracycline without a prescription from australia colospa overnight shipping cheap cytotec echeck chloramphenicol generico italiano legal buy altace online canada buy zovirax online india no prescription is there a drug comparative to aldactone fertomid women buy what is ginseng tablets good for prometrium to buy in england generic flagyl er buy canada buy diakof online india actonel india methotrexate pharmacy buy fml forte online pharmacy janssen cilag pipeline oncology how to get off lisinopril safely prednisone 5mg dose pack 48 renova black toilet paper case what is the generic name for trileptal shatavari online pharmacy uk what are the side effects of clonidine 0.1mg seroflo medication where to buy buyers of trazodone canada seroquel price australia buy cleocin gel inhaler canada to buy mevacor comprar topamax pela internet clomid on line uk accutane dosage instructions asacol where to get oxytrol tablets best site to buy desyrel what does viagra feel like yahoo actonel where to get purchase vytorin pills buying lipitor herbal blue pill uk xenical free shipping augmentin without a prescription from india suhagra 100 review claritin australia price coversyl ;cough medicines; order etodolac online generic elimite buy canada buy renagel from india laura spain exelon ciprofloxacin health canada side effects bystolic on line purchase long term side effects of female viagra safe anafranil buy betoptic buy online ireland eldepryl maximum dosage levitra professional generic canada rosuvastatin 100mg cheep switching from zoloft to remeron buy cipro tablets online buy medrol online india store prescription cheap zanaflex comprar imitrex original en madrid cvs natural water pills over the counter liposafe where to buy ciproxin carafate tablets prescribing information medicine back pain natural best place to order pariet in us prandin 0.5 mg tablet ranitidine order canada help prescription medicine costs xanax europe no prescription blopress on line no script glycomet drugs online purchases qsymia consumer reviews levitra precio mexico anafranil online forum is generic prilosec effective what is hoodia cactus alternative to doxycycline hyclate glycomet for sale online buy cabana neurosis what are erythromycin tablets used for clomid ovulation predictor female cialis cheap does levitra work for premature ejaculation purchase nexium in usa imitrex injection sale rimonabant weight loss drug amantadine in croatia apcalis tadalafil tablets how to import minipress trileptal how to buy viagra supply como usar la crema benzac doxycycline side effects pregnancy cheap tamoxifen pills uk online pharmacy non generic taco cabana order cephalexin line to buy extendaquin acai medication cheap toradol 100 mg online pharmacy canada no prescription diovan user reviews costco web pharmacy zebeta over the counter usa purchase shatavari pills will clomid prevent miscarriage singulair medication side effects flomax shoppers drug mart switching from lexapro to paxil avodart price malaysia dilantin from india nootropil ordering online pharmacy voveran sr without prescription tretinoin 0,025 india remeron tablets for sale what is the best dose of citalopram for anxiety ginette-35 coupons why has atrovent been discontinued carafate drug schedule famvir medication shingles celebrex brand positioning abilify where can i buy discount trazodone mg pyridium tablets 200 mg prevacid make you gain weight is plavix being discontinued serpina mg canadian rx emsam in canada where cane i buy trimethoprim tablets thyroxine hormone levels dapoxetine online ordering piroxicam gel atacand discount voucher order rumalaya forte medication by mail female cialis billig kaufen generic viagra me uk kamagra tablets info order erection packs 11 from generic mail order generic atorlip-5 robaxin for discount azathioprine and 6 mercaptopurine bactroban nasal mupirocin calcium ointment 2 to buy astelin canadian generic what is actos buy anafranil buy provera 100mg online cialis sublingual on line for sale no script zyban recommended dose is remeron better than ambien where to spend honor points alliance dalaran herpes medication zovirax fincar australia generic avandamet advair diskus effects mouth possible side buy valtrex pills in the canada indinavir legal in england most common medication for anxiety and depression eurax discounts codes liquid nimotop review terramycin canada prescription lynoral online forum forum review prescription merck propecia finasteride buy prescription drugs mexico current price lithium buy baclofen without rx can you mix celebrex and alcohol midamor overseas can you buy differin gel over the counter indian generics online ampicillin atarax medication definition levitra super active from mexico propecia results months estradiol testosterone cream zofran better than promethazine liposafe prices usa lekaren on line viagra celadrin buy canada triamterene order online synthroid discount drug wellbutrin 10 mg cost what does a 50 mg zoloft pill look like indocin online from usa viagra professional tablets us online ayurslim tablets online buy hydrocodone online no prescription cheap bupropion xl price walgreens medline india cefixime robaxin without a prescription buy minocycline new zealand online aspirin online kaufen current price cialis soft brand levitra australia pharmacy zolpidem tartrate dosage what is hydrochlorothiazide medication for stats counter html us pharmacies online that sell provera side effects of dutas cheap sarafem 40 mg lioresal pharmacy prices list ordering soft viagra online drug benicar 80 mg tablet amitriptyline hydrochloride for pain neurontin cost canada use alphagan coupon online como comprar aciclovir nos estados unidos diamox sequels medication prescription drug sales data flonase cataracts lawsuit differin coupons 35 cashback buy revia medication cheap aleve baclofen online in usa do i need a prescription for skelaxin can you take nexium twice daily comprar rosuvastatin original order amaryllis plant healthy weight 40 year old man kamagra oral jelly usage what do mobic pills look like order xanax online uk diamox order on web buy valacyclovir valtrex is generic zaditor available in usa how much is propecia at walgreens crestor 10 mg pret disgrasil precio penegra mg buy do i need viagra i pill serophene website cheapest drug ditropan where to buy cheap generic lukol how to import kamagra oral jelly online pharmacy uk aleve abilify coupons and discounts purchase atorlip-5 mg cost of advair diskus 500/50 pharmacy that sells viagra professional getting periactin in australia strattera adhd wikipedia ampicillin online antibiotics buy seroflo hong kong copd obstructive terramycin tablets from buy tinidazole wanted online review buy dostinex india zocor shoppers drug mart vytorin brands india generic for valtrex 1gm www bystolic side effects trandate supplier in uk sertralina 50 mg genfar viagra price 100mg where can i buy citalopram in the uk astelin no prescription reviews meds online no script accutane dosage order viagra plus in prescriptions fertomid medication where to buy andros sildenafil side effects flovent hfa coupon cost of protonix cb-1 weight gain pills reviews bayas de acai comprar do i need a prescription for bentyl cytotec labor and delivery low cost eurax cipla pharmaceuticals careers tesco pharmacy opening times swansea arimidex pct side effects pms-amantadine side effects best place to buy albendazole in uk can i make pletal can you get high from snorting paxil what is hyaluronic acid good for skin depakote 40 mg dose naprosyn tablets price we transfer not working where is downton abbey wedding filmed buy clozaril 100mg online pletal brand positioning nymphomax canada prescription buy proscar online no prescription seroquel without a prescription free shipping acheter decadron pas cher itunes 12 days of christmas prevacid order levitra plus medicine canadian pharmacy pill shop nike air max men sale blood pressure medication tenormin over counter promethazine order buy actos online discount cardizem tablets purchase on line acai mg tablet atrovent australia price where can i buy ceftin risperdal buy on line elocon on line in the canada norvasc 5mg price philippines generic colospa in usa how to take tenormin prinivil lawsuit canada finast no rx detrol without insurance accutane second month over the counter amoxil buy asacol mg online what is the function of liv 52 best place to buy lipitor in india bupropion uk online how many claritin d can you buy where to buy cheap generic aciclovir costco pharmacy speman price what is tricor pills used for toprol xl generic cost medicine digoxina prescription drug micronase how to take mentax mg purchase celebrex no prescription low price what is wellbutrin sr prescribed for ordering flagyl india pfizer viagra 50mg vs 100mg is it illegal to order generic zerit how to order diamox online lasix delivery uk prevacid without a prescription from canada lowest premarin dose order strattera 40 mg buying lipitor in spain mentat ds syrup prescription coupon haloperidol (haldol serenace) acai berry detox capsules side effects viagra professional medication supreme commander forged alliance purchase can men take metronidazole biaxin generic equivalent zofran drugs nausea low cost clomid levitra erfahrung kauf online arimidex price nhs repeat prescriptions online can i get moduretic ampicillin pediatric dose meningitis Purchase vermox 500mg amoxil capsules side effects reglan no prrescription generic drug atacand hct potatoes not prozac recipes zoloft pills online in the india generic combivent for sale on line generic prazosin for sale on line promethazine w codeine syrup over the counter exelon medication price why can i find alli diet pills in stores generic cefixime price order lotrisone 120 mg order cabgolin online propecia generic date 2012 buy antabuse 500mg buspar no rx discontinued use of paxil cialis super active drug in canada pharmacy cardura drugs com order purim cheap antifludes jarabe adulto amsterdam pharmacy airport weight gain after nolvadex traditional chinese medicine back pain cialis 20 mg time no prescription carbozyne sale where to buy qsymia cefixime uk brand name can you buy zovirax drugstore generic aciphex overnite shipping norvasc canada prescription low cost astelin can you buy lopressor blood pressure cholesterol drug clomid pct after anavar can we trust lynoral online what is acai berry online sale of cardizem best price prednisolone can i get pregnant while on synthroid cheap pills finasteride buy proscar best place to buy prograf synthroid vs levoxyl vs levothroid where to buy allegra d over the counter antihistamine blue pill with watson 349 on it online doctor prescriptions xanax atarax pills effects what are some generic drug names for synthroid buy benzac singapore buy generic cialis professional the drugstore cowboys rockabilly probalan shopping herbal raw material suppliers in india requip tablets price lamisil cream prices amaryl over the counter 1mg drugs online how much is viagra in thailand safe place order zyban is there a generic drug for arimidex order dulcolax buy phenergan online with mastercard indian glucotrol xl what is crestor medication used for trazodone where can i buy it purchase norvasc canada buy trental cheap what does maxalt contain order zyloprim 120 mg where to buy pet meds online purchase cephalexin oral suspension avodart birth control online us finax uk buy what is the signs of digoxin toxicity abilify without antidepressant treatment original zetia online is generic atacand available in usa kamagra oral jelly prescription coupon can you buy cytoxan drug propecia recommended dosage low vitamin d erectile dysfunction cane you buy lamisil canadian pharmacy fertility drugs for men treatment seroquel uk pharmacy best pharmacy to order skelaxin methotrexate combination humira premarin from canada mobic online canada amoxil where can i buy zyrtec 10 mg ml solution buvable en gouttes feldene online overnight cheapest brand name viagra buy viagra las vegas nv comprar atorlip-10 original en madrid on line pharmacy for brand name 100 mg viagra order pariet on line mexico alli pct buy dostinex how long to take effect oregon state parks cabins doxycycline 10mg tablets shuddha guggulu order in the us glucophage dosage too high viagra generic wikipedia drugs what is unisom buy brand advair diskus 20 buy cipro discount discount canadian pharmacy lincocin cialis for daily use coupon pak newspapers online free female pink viagra 100 mg pills is zyrtec better than claritin d ophthacare italiano pulmicort sold over counter mail-order motrin alli diet pills canada can you buy cialis over counter mexico cheap genuine combivent online huge weight gain on methotrexate actos shipping overseas yasmin contraceptive pills instructions cheap purinethol buy online paroxetine from zydus can your buy levitra professional in ireland tablets omnicef for purchase what are the long term side effects of taking metformin desyrel for sleep aid what is the color and shape of pyridium tablets where to buy viramune pharmacy from india to usa long term side effects of vantin buy geriforte mexican pharmacies cleocin no prescription compare prices can you get voveran over the counter dilantin level check where can you buy ciprofloxacin ophthalmic solution viagra generic online uk deltasone western australia prometrium lowest price my himcolin coupons oxytrol price roxithromycin dosage for acne calcium carbonate with vitamin d drug classification prices for viagra at walmart generic gasex in usa is there viagra for ladies order famvir online no prescription zaditor eye drops india viagra not covered by medicare remeron over counter uk order celexa pill buy elocon australia donde comprar trazodone cheap ortho tri-cyclen birth control viagra australia buy online propecia online store cheap xbox live gold order parlodel online uk zyban uk antidepressant best blood pressure medication for black men pletal medication dose buy terramycin 20 promethazine shop net precose cheap price cheap metformin 500 mg late ovulation on clomid living pcos finpecia no rx wellbutrin withdrawal nausea can you buy mevacor online all types sominex pills vancouver british columbia pharmacies where is the love lyrics busted best nexium prices nizagara western australia doxycycline 100mg capsule compazine tablets price combivent canada vente de acai au quebec priligy 30mg side effects aricept roche precio argentina cheap aciclovir buy online hydrea generic wikipedia drugs
Home Maury Brown Valuating Stephen Strasburg

Like Shoot to Thrill - An AC/DC Tribute on Facebook!

An authentic tribute of AC/DC that covers the best of the Bon Scott era and the best of Brian Johnson's material

Who's Online?

We have 588 guests online

Atom RSS

Valuating Stephen Strasburg PDF Print E-mail
User Rating: / 29
PoorBest 
Written by Maury Brown   
Wednesday, 17 June 2009 02:50

Stephen StrasburgUPDATE: See the Sunday, Aug 16 article With Strasburg, It May Be the Years, More Than Money, That is the Focus for more leading up to the deadline deal.

NOTE: Follow Maury Brown and The Biz of Baseball on Twitter leading up to the signing deadline on the 17th


Over the past couple of weeks, a recurring question on radio and elsewhere posed to me has centered around the first overall pick in this year’s MLB First-Year Player Draft, Stephen Strasburg. The pitcher that has been deemed by some as a "once in a lifetime" pitching prospect is being represented by Scott Boras, and with the Washington Nationals selecting him, the main question asked is, “Will he get signed, and for how much?” That is almost always followed by, “Do you think he’s worth that much, and do you see changes coming to address the amount doled out to first-year drafted players?”

The first question involves how much Boras is seeking and where the deal might actually land. Reports have had Boras centering around a 6-year deal between $25M-$50 million.

Boras has come up with the stratospheric figures based upon Daisuke Matsuzaka, who received a $52 million contract from the Red Sox after doling out a $51 million posting fee. The argument Boras is making is that the 21-year-old Strasburg is worth more than Matsuzaka at 28. Also, Boras believes that if Strasburg were on the free agent block, he might garner more still. Remember, the record to date is 5/$10.5 million doled out to Mark Prior.

This sets up a clash of cultures as Stan Kasten isn’t exactly keen on player agents to begin with. The Nationals are going to focus on the landmark Prior figure and surely will try to push the lofty $50 million figure back and Boras isn’t going accept the $25 million floor figure. As with most all contract negotiations, the agreed upon salary figure will be somewhere in the middle. One NL exec has predicted $30 million. While the Nationals will certainly see that as exorbitant and will likely start at the Prior figure, the $30 million figure appears to be a possibility and for the purposes of this exercise, let’s say that the $30 million figure is where the sides finally agree. How would Strasburg, a player that has never thrown one pitch as a professional, let alone the major leagues, compare with players that are able to engage in salary arbitration?

Comparing a Strasburg Contract to Last Year’s Crop of Salary Arbitration Eligible Starting Pitchers

As a quick primer, here are the eligibility requirements for salary arbitration:

  • Players with at least 3 but less than 6 years of Major League service time.
  • The top 17 percent of players with at least 2 but less than 3 years of Major League service. (See Super 2). To qualify as a Super 2, a player must have accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year. (A year of service is 172 days. The historical cutoff point for Super 2 status is 2 years, 128 days of service, though the requirement has been as high as 2 years, 140 days.)
  • Players who have filed for free agency and both received and accepted offers of arbitration from their former club.

Based upon the 6/$30 million figure that we have assigned for Strasburg, we can calculate what his contract's average annual value would be (AAV):

6 years / $30 million = AAV of $5 million

The following table shows the 21 starting pitchers that were part of the most recent salary arbitration eligibility class, plus the addition of Strasburg based upon the $5,000,000 AAV projection. The table is ranked by highest AAV to lowest, with draft details, major league service time, club, 2008 salary, contract length, percentage of increase from 2008 to 2009 salary, total contract value, AAV, and any awards.

The data is designed to show what a player makes before hitting salary arbitration (in this instance the 2008 salary), how much they can earn through the process, and where Strasburg sits coming out of the draft without any professional service time (ML or MiLB).

Select Read More to see the rest of this article, including salary data for all starting pitchers in the most recent salary arbitration class

Starting Pitchers - 2009 Salary Arb Class + Strasburg
Rank Name Drafted ST Club 2008 Term % from '08 Total Contract AAV Awards
1 Ervin Santana '00 - Amateur FA 3.104 LAA $445,000 3 754% $30,000,000 $10,000,000 All-Star - '08
2 Zack Greinke
'02 - 1st round - 6th 4.057 KC $1,400,000 4 168% $38,000,000 $9,500,000 (Currently 1st in ERA)
3 Erik Bedard
'99 - 6th round - 13th 5.171 SEA $7,000,000 1 11% $7,750,000 $7,750,000
4 Cole Hamels '02 - 1st round - 17th 2.143 PH $500,000 3 770% $20,500,000 $6,833,333 All-Star - '07, NLCS MVP - '08, WS MVP - '08
5 Bobby Jenks '00 - 5th round - 10th
3.09 CWS $550,000 1 918% $5,600,000 $5,600,000 All-Star - '06, '07
6 Joe Blanton 02 - 1st round - 24th 4.016 PH $3,700,000 1 48% $5,475,000 $5,475,000
7 * Stephen Strasburg '09 - 1st round - 1st 0.000 WAS -- 6 -- $30,000,000 $5,000,000 --
8 Paul Maholm '03 - 1st round - 8th 3.037 PI $424,500 3 724% $14,500,000 $4,833,333
9 Todd Wellemeyer '00 - 4th round - 3rd 5.009 SL $1,000,000 1 305% $4,050,000 $4,050,000
10 Justin Duchscherer '96 - 8th round - 26th 5.051 OA $1,200,000 1 225% $3,900,000 $3,900,000
11 Felix Hernandez '02 - Amateur FA
3.06 SE $540,000 1 604% $3,800,000 $3,800,000
12 Justin Verlander '04 - 1st round - 2nd 3.002 DE $1,130,000 1 225% $3,675,000 $3,675,000 All-Star - '07
13 Scott Olsen '02 - 6th round - 11th
3.101 WA $405,000 1 591% $2,800,000 $2,800,000
14 Wandy Rodriguez '99 - Amateur FA
3.105 HO $451,000 1 476% $2,600,000 $2,600,000
15 John Maine '02 - 6th round - 4th 3.013 NYM $450,000 1 478% $2,600,000 $2,600,000
16 Ricky Nolasco '01 - 4th round - 2nd 2.142 FL $390,000 1 515% $2,400,000 $2,400,000
17 Edwin Jackson '01 - 6th round - 24th 3.07 DE $412,700 1 433% $2,200,000 $2,200,000
18 Zach Duke '01 - 20th round - 8th 3.094 PI $400,000 1 450% $2,200,000 $2,200,000
19 Jorge de la Rosa '98 - Amateur FA 4.015 COL $417,000 1 380% $2,000,000 $2,000,000
20 Brian Bannister '03 - 7th round - 12th 2.158 KC $421,000 1 313% $1,737,500 $1,737,500
21 Brandon Backe '98 - 18th round - 29th 5.088 HO $800,000 1 94% $1,550,000 $1,550,000
22 Shawn Hill '00 - 6th round - 5th 2.153 WA $402,000 1 93% $775,000 $775,000

* Figures based upon projections

Valuating Strasburg

As noted in the table, Strasburg would wind up 7th out of 22 players when using the 6/$30 million projected contract figures. In looking at a salary arb SP that most closely resembles Strasburg in terms of their place in the draft selection, Justin Verlander was selected 2nd overall in the 2004 draft. He was signed to a five-year deal with a $3.12 million bonus. At the time, the deal was worth a guaranteed $4.5 million with a maximum value of $5.6 million, so at the max figure, the AAV for Verlander heading out of the draft was $1.12 million, a fraction of what Boras is looking to get for Strasburg.

If the moon and the stars were to align and Boras were able to extract the $50 million figure out of the Nationals, Strasburg would match the highest AAV figure out of most recent class of starting pitchers in salary arbitration in Ervin Santana ($10 million). That would place him above All-Star and NLCS and World Series MVP Cole Hamels (2009 AAV of $6,833,333).

Also consider this: of the 14 pitchers selected as the first overall pick in the MLB draft dating back 40 years to 1968, only 3 of them were All-Stars (Floyd Bannister in ‘76, Mike Moore in ’81, and Andy Benes in ’88). On the other end of the spectrum, Brien Taylor, who was selected first overall by the Yankees in 1991 never played a single MLB game.

There have been some compelling arguments that assigning large sums of bonus money to draft picks in MLB should be no different than in the NFL, with one of the best made by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Kevin writes, “I’m sticking with my prediction of a $8-10 million bonus as part of a total package worth $20-30 million.” Kevin's values stick closely to the figures being used in this analysis. Kevin then adds:

“But I’m watching baseball highlights on ESPN the other day and on the ticker at the bottom, it flashes that the New York Jets have signed their first-round pick to a $50 million deal, of which $28 million is guaranteed. Talking to somebody who follows the game, I learn that this guy is not the first pick in the draft, or even the first guy at his position selected this year, yet anything close to anything someone would describe as historical.

And yet, nobody blinks an eye.

There’s certainly a level of truth to Kevin’s assertion, especially when it comes to just bonuses. But as I commented in his article, I made the assertion that drafted players in football translate faster to the NFL, and therefore guarenteed money is a lesser risk. As mentioned that was an assertion, but I was not entirely sure when it came to quarterbacks, a position that closely resembles the starting pitcher in MLB in importance.

For comparison sake, looking at overall first picks in the NFL over the same 40-year period, there are three Hall of Famers (Terry Bradshaw in ’70, John Elway in ’83, and Troy Aikman in ’89).

Going over the list of first overall picks in the NFL, and examining the QBs selected, I could only find one that was not looking to start in 2009 (JaMarcus Russell of the Raiders, although Matthew Stafford, the first pick this year by the Lions could be added to the list), with the rest of the field all having decent career lengths -- some much longer. To add further, Eli Manning, the first overall pick in the 2004 draft was the MVP of Super Bowl XLII. To date, there has not been a single Cy Young winner or World Series MVP that was selected as the first overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft. So, I'm sticking to my comment that first overall picks in the NFL draft have a lower risk value when it comes to actually being "major league ready", and that the talent level is a smaller jump for colliegiate players to the NFL, when compared to players drafted for baseball.

But all that said, as Boras has mentioned, it seems a near certainty that Strasburg would garner $50 million, maybe more on the free agency market. One wonders what 2007 first overall pick David Price would have garnered on the FA market, as well. Free agency has the capacity to overvaluate prospective talent.

In closing, the comparison here with the salary arb pitchers is simply that: a comparison. For the Washington Nationals, who have lost on a historical level in the standings, and are drawing abysmally in attendance, signing and calling up Strasburg in September would certainly give the fans, and most likely, the team a lift. If the deal winds up at 6/$30 million, then averaging $5 million over the course of contract seems a small investment to gain some much needed traction in the buzz department for the Nationals, regardless of the past history as it pertains to contract values for first-year drafted players. All eyes should watch the calendar with the August 17 signing deadline date the focus. The battle between Boras’ lofty figure for Strasburg against the pressure of signing their first pick after being unable to reach a deal with their first pick last year in Aaron Crow will make for good drama.

SOURCE DATA FOR SALARY ARBITRATION TABLE:

The Biz of Baseball - Salary Arbitration Figures (2009)


Maury Brown is the Founder and President of the Business of Sports Network, which includes The Biz of Baseball, The Biz of Football, The Biz of Basketball and The Biz of Hockey. He is contributor to Baseball Prospectus, and is available as a freelance writer. Brown's full bio is here. He looks forward to your comments via email and can be contacted through the Business of Sports Network.

Don't forget to register and log in on The Biz of Baseball site to get updates via your in-box, and see information only logged in members can see.

Follow Maury Brown and the Business of Sports Network on Twitter Twitter

 
 
Banner

Poll

Should MLB Force Jeffery Loria to Sell the Marlins?