30. For the most part, it's a number that seems to suit major league sports in America. The NBA has it. Ditto for the NHL. And yes, MLB has it. Currently, only the NFL is the exception at 32.

The number of markets at 30 is manageable. The NFL has the advantage of being highly centralized (revenues are shared more evenly across the franchises), and exceptionally popular. Even with that, there are strains (note that the owners recently opted out of the CBA) with the added teams.

Of all these, it is MLB that was the last to expand (1998). NHL? 2000 with the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Minnesota Wild. NFL? 2002 with the Houston Texans. NBA? 2004 with the rechristened Charlotte Bobcats.

And, when you look at MLB historically, the stretch in-between expansions currently is the second longest since, well… the Expansion Era: a decade.

There are reasons for this, of course. The rapid period of expansion in the ‘60s occurred shortly after Walter O’Malley and Horace Stoneham moved the Dodgers and Giants to the West Coast. The moves in 1957 showed that with air travel, markets west of the Mississippi could be tapped that had never been considered before. When coupled with the growth of television, untapped revenues could be accessed. The AL and NL were also very much separate leagues vying for markets. Now, most all the prime large markets have been sucked up, and television, once simply an over-the-air matter, is a huge factor given regional sports networks.

Below is a listing of markets, along with their respective leagues from the time the Dodgers and Giants relocated, till 2008.

Select Read More to see the Top 10 Markets for Relocation or Expansion

When looking at ranking markets for relocation or expansion, one needs to look at the Montreal Expos relocation; the last real look at markets that might wish to be home to an MLB club that did not have one.

In early November of 2001, MLB attempted to downsize the league from 30 teams to 28 through “contraction”. The Expos had been languishing in Montreal due to numerous reasons, and with MLB reportedly losing money, looked to the downsizing as a way to minimize losses. Since 29 teams would have been lopsided, the Minnesota Twins, through owner Carl Pohlad, threw their hat into the ring for contraction.

The problem was, and still is, that markets that don’t have Major League Baseball clamor for it, if opportunity knocks. Relocation was then explored after contraction was lofted out. Given the legal wranglings, and want for MLB, markets came calling for a relocated Expos, hence the Washington Nationals.

Since then, the Marlins have used relocation a method to feel out the Portland and San Antonio markets – more a method to try and use relocation to leverage a new stadium out of the South Florida market. The Rays, given the low attendance in the past, and less than perfect home in Tropicana Field, have been talked of in relocation circles (and probably will again, depending on the outcome of the Al Lang Field proposal), but that discussion bumps into a very tight lease agreement.

There have been a couple of very good research articles on expansion or relocation markets recently. Whether it was Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus, or Walk Off Walk, the articles have been extremely insightful and created the needed nudge for what you will see below.

As the footnotes explain, the methodology being applied here isn’t being done by me for the first time. The following rankings are based upon much of the data that was requested of MLB during the Expos relocation derby.

The following information was used to derive rankings:

• 2000 Census population, rank against the other markets.
• For international markets, other sources have been used.
• Household income based on census.
• Distance to the nearest existing MLB market or markets (relates to cannibalizing fan base at the attendance and television level).
• Number of existing major league franchises within the market. This derives the population base per franchise. The more franchises, the more diluted the market becomes in terms of fans for season tickets and corporate sponsorships.
• Television markets are defined not only by Designated Market Area (DMA), but by looking at MLB’s television territories, which are vastly larger than television DMA. Any team placed within the US would carve up one or more club’s television territory. As we saw with the relocation of the Expos to DC, that aspect has profound impacts.
• The Arbitron Radio DMA is provided to show strength of radio audience.
• For relocation, possible interim facilities are provided. An expansion would most likely not require an interim facility while a new state-of-the-art MLB stadium were being built. A listing of how many Fortune 1000 companies are within a market is provided. These companies would be key for sponsorships, possible naming rights, and corporate blocks of tickets which are becoming more and more common for lower bowl sales.
• International Markets do not have media rankings, but other forms of information are provided.

***** ***** ***** *****

10 – Norfolk, VA

(includes Virginia Beach-Newport News)

2000 Census Population: 1,569,541 (Rank – 45th)

Average Household Income: $36,920 (2005 figure). Virginia Beach ($52,175, ranks 4th)

Distance from Closest MLB Market(s): 143 miles (Nationals), 165 miles (Orioles)

MLB Television Territories Impacted: Nationals and Orioles

Television information: (Ranks 42nd by DMA), 717, 440 television households, % of US - 0.636

Radio Information: Arbitron Ranking - 41st (Metro 12+ Population - 1,327,700)

Number of Major League Teams: 0

Interim/New Facility location: Harbor Park (upgraded from 35,000 - 38,000-seat stadium including 60 - 70 luxury suites).

Population base per franchise (including MLB team): 1,569,541

Number of  Fortune 1000 Companies: 1

Norfolk Southern (267th  $9,407M)

Pros

In 2003, Norfolk appeared as a possible relocation candidate for the Montreal Expos and a possible stop-gap measure for Orioles owner Peter Angelos. Angelos saw a team in Washington, D.C. or Northern Virginia as unacceptable. Norfolk, it seemed, was far enough away from Baltimore.

Norfolk, at the time, had a funding model on the table, which could be leveraged, and baseball boosters collected deposits for season tickets, should a team arrive.

Cons

Think of Norfolk and that old real estate adage comes to mind: location, location, location. Problem is, it’s a bad one.

When the Expos were relocated to Washington, DC, Mid-Atlantic Sports Network was created, thus placing Norfolk in both the Orioles and Nationals broadcast territory. The fact is, now Norfolk is too close to the DC and Baltimore markets. While there will be cannibalization in any instance where an MLB team is placed (with some international locations the possible exception), Norfolk would be dealing with Peter Angelos just after MLB dealt with Angelos regarding the relocation of the Expos.

9– San Juan, Puerto Rico

(includes Caguas and Arecibo)

2000 Census Population: 2,450,292 (Rank – 36th)

Distance to nearest MLB market: 1,038 miles (Miami)

MLB Television territories impacted: none

Average Household Income: $17,367

Television information: An estimated 1.1 million households exist in Puerto Rico of which 98% have at least one television set (source Museum of Broadcast Communications)

Radio Information: N/A

Number of Major League Teams: 0

Interim/New Facility location: Hiram Bithorn Stadium (seating capacity - 18,000)

Population base per franchise (including MLB team): 2,450,292

Number of Fortune 500 Global Companies: 1

Popular (540th  $ 3,873.9M – Location: Hato Rey)

Pros

Hiram Bithorn Stadium wound up being “home” to the Montreal Expos for parts of two seasons (2003 and 2004) playing 22 games in each of them. It has also been used to host the parts of the first two rounds of the World Baseball Classic, as well as an Opening Day game in 2001 between the Blue Jays and Rangers. MLB has been quick to pull San Juan into discussions anytime that relocation has been the subject.

Also, no one team claims Puerto Rico as their television territory. To the best of our knowledge, television deals in Puerto Rico are centralized across MLB.

Cons

The biggest issues with San Juan includes upgrades to Hiram Bithorn to get it anywhere near MLB-ready, the low median income, and lack of corporate base. Add in travel concerns (it would be the furthest south of any MLB team) and San Juan becomes a great location for MLB events, but most likely not a permanent home.

8 – Sacramento, CA.

(Includes Yolo, CMSA)

Population: 1,796,857 (rank 23rd)

Distance to nearest MLB market: 81 miles (Oakland), 88 miles (San Francisco)

MLB Television Territories impacted: Athletics, Giants

Average Household Income: $42,142 (ranks 21st)

Television information: Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto (Ranks 20th by DMA), 1,391,790 television households

Radio Information: (Sacramento only) Arbitron ranking – 27th (Metro 12+ population - 1,805,200)

Number of Major League Teams: 1 (Sacramento Kings)

Interim/New Facility location: Raley Stadium (max seating capacity – 14,111)

Population base per franchise (including MLB team): 898,428.5

Number of Fortune 1000 Global Companies: 1

McClatchy (813th $2,313.3 M)

Pros

Slowly but surely, Sacramento has continued to grow in population (CMSA helps SacTown in many regards), and there is that “just maybe” element to the market. And while there has never been a direct correlation between minor league attendance and how a major league team has fared after arriving (they are, after all, very different products), the Rivercats of the PCL have been a consistent and steady draw showing folks in Sacramento love baseball. Reno isn’t exactly close, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility for those in the Biggest Little City to make the trek to Sacramento in the summer to take in games.

Cons

Having only one  Fortune 1000 company creates sponsorship issues, when you add in that the NBA is the one-trick-pony in Sacramento. Certainly the Maloofs, who own the Kings, would be none too pleased with the idea of an MLB team in their small market. The brothers have been working for years to land a new arena for the Kings (and technically, the WNBA Monarchs). A push for MLB would cloud that effort, and it seems a given that they would pull every string they could find to thwart an MLB effort. And, we haven’t even brought up Lew Wolff and the A’s. Now, if Wolff and Co. could ever get Cisco Field online….

7 – Montreal, Canada

Population (2006): 1,854,442 (proper, ranks as 2nd largest city in Canada), Metropolitan area - 3,635,571

Distance to nearest MLB market(s): Boston (253 miles) , New York (329 miles), Philadelphia (388 miles)

MLB Television Territories impacted: Blue Jays

Average Household Income: $47,500 (Canadian)

Television information: Second largest television market in Canada (DMA figure unavailable) (source Museum of Broadcast Communications)

Number of Major League Teams: 2 (NHL – Canadians, CFL – Alouettes)

Interim/New Facility location: Olympic Stadium (seating capacity –  46,500)

Population base per franchise (including MLB team): 1,211,857

Number of Fortune 500 Global Companies: 4

Power Corp. of Canada (290th (in millions) $21,962.1) – Alcan (313th (in millions) $20,659.0) – BCE (405th (in millions) $16,506.4) – Bombardier (453rd (in millions) $14,903.0)

Pros

Let’s face it; it’s easier to go some place you already know than go to a location where everything is an unknown. With that, the return of MLB to Montreal should never be left off the relocation/expansion list. While it’s a foregone conclusion that calling Olympic Stadium any kind of permanent home for a return to Montreal is out of the question, it could serve as an interim facility. Given the “what if?” that came with the ’94 strike, the Expos story could have turned out entirely different. The team - hitting on all cylinders and short of a collapse - seemed playoff bound.

Cons

When the Expos were snatched from Montreal and sent off to D.C., the chief complaint by MLB was the lack of support. That wasn’t entirely Montreal’s fault, and falls on ownership (namely Loria) to a certain extent. But, the ability to garner any type of public funding for a new “Labatt’s Stadium” would be nearly impossible. Couple that with a lukewarm fan base, MLB’s memory of how international exchange rates created problems just after 2000 (although, that exchange rate certainly works in Canada’s favor now), and the near impossibility of garnering public funding for stadium development and Montreal may have troubles ever getting back on MLB’s radar.

6 – Monterrey, Mexico

Population: 1.1 million (proper), Metropolitan area - 3.8 million

Distance to nearest MLB market: 412 miles (Houston)

MLB Television Territories impacted: None

Average Household Income: (2000 figures) Valle region $11,300, Inner city $ 8,700

Television information: Second largest market in Mexico

Number of Major League Teams: 0

Interim/New Facility location: Estadio Monterrey (seating capacity – 26,000)

Population base per franchise (including MLB team): 2,450,292

Number of Fortune 500 Global Companies: 0

Pros

Monterrey has hosted more than one MLB game. The Dodgers and Brewers played there in 1991, the Twins and Braves in 1993.

While Monterrey doesn’t have a single Fortune 1000 company that it can call its own, with NAFTA, Monterrey is an industrial hub hosting a laundry list of U.S. company presences. American Express, Amway, Baker & McKenzie, Bank of America, Carrier, Caterpillar, Chrysler, Donnelly, GE, GM, Honeywell, IBM, John Deere, JC Penney, Kohler, Korn/Ferry International, KPMG, Kimberly Clark, Lucent, Mary Kay Cosmetics, Pinkerton, Price Waterhouse Coopers, Trane, Toyota, Visteon, Wayerhaeuser, and York all call the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon home. Fortune ranks Monterrey as the best Latin American city in which to conduct business in.

Throw in Mexican industrialist Carlos Bremer, who along with Jose Maiz worked during 2003 to try and get MLB to host 22 MLB games in Estadio Monterrey, and Monterrey becomes the prohibitive favorite, should MLB decide to consider expanding or relocating teams in Mexico.

Cons

Much like Montreal, international exchange rates would play a factor, should MLB look to relocate or expand internationally. Monterrey knows full well about how the rise and fall in currency can impact matters. Maiz mentioned this in 2004 to MLB.com. "In 1994, we applied to get games played here on a permanent basis, but in December 1994, there was a big devaluation of the money here," Maiz said. "I wrote a letter immediately to the Major Leagues to tell them to retire my proposal because the country was not in a condition to host a team.”

Another issue is the amount of discretionary income available to those in Monterrey. Mexico is broken into three “zones” of the republic, with Monterrey falling into “Zone B”, or the middle of the economic classes. Still, the average household income is deemed to be well below U.S. standards. That creates sustainability concerns.

Monterrey is a possibility, but may be a decade off.

5 – San Antonio, TX.

Population 1,592,383 (Rank – 27th)

Distance to nearest MLB market: Houston (197 miles). Arlington (278 miles)

Average Household Income: $36,994 (ranks 43rd)

MLB Television Territories impacted: Astros, Rangers

Television information: Ranks 37th in DMA (792,440 television households)

Radio Information: (San Antonio only) Arbitron ranking – 30th (Metro 12+ population - 1,626,500)

Number of Major League Teams: 1 (San Antonio Spurs)

Interim/New Facility location: Nelson W. Wolff Stadium (seating capacity – 9,500)

Population base per franchise (with MLB team): 796,191

Number of  Fortune 1000 Companies: 8

Valero Energy (15th  $81,362.0 M), AT&T (39th  $43,862.0 M), Tesoro (132nd  $16,473.0 M), USAA (189th  $11,980.4 M), Clear Channel Communications (252nd  $9,468.9 M), Freescale Semiconductor (368th  $5,843.0 M)***, Temple-Inland (433rd  $4,910.0 M)*, Whole Foods Market (449th  $4,701.3 M)*

* - Austin, TX.

Pros

Pushed up against yet another failed bid for stadium funding, in 2006 the Marlins decided to look at other markets, including San Antonio. Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff, a big baseball booster in San Antonio (note that the Mission’s ballpark is named after him), threw his political weight behind trying to work a deal that might be attractive to the Marlins brass. That, in and of itself, is always a plus for any market, and hardly static. Judge Wolff’s political moves helped get San Antonio more than a passing glance. Add to the fact that the Spurs didn’t strongly object at the time, and San Antonio has possibilities.

Where San Antonio might fall short as a small market, in ’06 the plans were to try and place the ballpark closer to Austin (80 miles away), where a larger population could be drawn from. That was a double-edged consideration (More people, good. Away from urban core, bad), but showed that San Antonio was at least trying to make it happen. The last piece that bodes well for San Antonio and Austin is the strong corporate base.

Cons

As mentioned, San Antonio is a small market, which hurts their chances. The small DMA adds a further crimp, and was mentioned as a negative in 2006 by Marlins president David Samson. Throw in the fact that the whole of Texas is split up by the Rangers and Astros, and San Antonio becomes a third wheel, slicing up the television market further.

San Antonio could happen. But, for it to work, MLB would have to get cozy with the idea of a ballpark outside of the urban core. That’s something hard to see MLB going along with for a relocation candidate, let alone expansion.

4 – Las Vegas, NV.

Population: 1,563,282 (MSA) (Ranks – 10th)

Distance to nearest MLB market: Los Angeles (270 miles), Anaheim (222 miles)

MLB Television Territories impacted: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Athletics, Giants, D-Backs

Average Household Income: $44,078 (ranks 17th)

Television information: Ranks 43rd in DMA (707,470 television households)

Radio Information: Arbitron ranking – 33rd (Metro 12+ population - 1,541,900)

Number of Major League Teams: 0

Interim/New Facility location: Cashman Field (seating capacity – 9,334)

Population base per franchise (with MLB team): 1,563,282

Number of Fortune 1000 Companies: 7

Harrah's Entertainment (309th  $7,411.1 M), MGM Mirage (334th  $6,482.0 M), Boyd Gaming (753rd  $2,223.0 M), Las Vegas Sands (877th  $1,740.9 M), Southwest Gas (891st  $1,714.3 M), Wynn Resorts (731st $2,687.5 M), Sierra Health Services (917th $1,909.7 M)

Pros

Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing cities in the nation, and with that, major league sports arriving there seems a matter of when, not if. One thing seems certain: which ever league gets into Vegas first will have no problem selling suites. Saying that you own a suite is one thing. Saying that you own a suite in Vegas, is another. It’s an entertainment magnet.

In 2004, Vegas became the hip location to talk about for the Expos. If D.C. failed, it seemed that warming up to the idea of legalized gambling was no longer a prohibitive factor. Mayor Oscar Goodman got MLB brass to come out and talk stadium specifics, but “specifics” never seemed to come from Goodman. Vegas would have to wait.

Cons

As it always is, the issue with any market is funding a stadium, with as little input from would-be owners as possible. As mentioned, Mayor Goodman talked of a scheme to get a stadium developed with little to no public subsidy. That model was not completely made public, but in an our interview with Lou Weisbach of Stadium Capital Financing, it seems that a large part of the Vegas effort was the use of Weisbach’s Equity Seats Rights model. Whether it was the idea of the seat rights program, or the fact that Goodman wasn’t keen on coming up with other public subsidies (something that other developers of entertainment locations in Vegas have had to do without), MLB talked about Vegas’ possibilities, but the rubber never hit the road.

Beyond those issues, while Vegas is growing like a weed, there’s really nothing more than tumbleweeds outside of Vegas proper. As the ranks above show, Vegas has an exceptionally small television market size. With television becoming a key revenue driver, the small DMA works against Vegas. Throw in a dose of Pete Rose for good measure, and MLB may not be the first in the door in Las Vegas. Oh, and talk about television market cannibalization issues. Vegas is arcanely split six ways. Negotiating that would be interesting.

3 – Charlotte, NC.

Population: 1,499,293 (MSA) (Ranks – 19th)

(includes Gastonia--Rock Hill, NC—SC)

Distance to nearest MLB market: Atlanta (224 miles)

MLB Television Territories impacted: Nationals, Orioles

Average Household Income: $44,375 (ranks 15th)

Television information: Ranks 25th in DMA (1,085,640 television households)

Radio Information: Arbitron ranking – 25th (Metro 12+ population - 1,886,100)

Number of Major League Teams: 2 (NBA Bobcats, NFL Panthers. Also has WNBA Sting)

Interim/New Facility location: Knights Stadium (seating capacity – 10,002)

Population base per franchise (with MLB team): 499,764

Number of Fortune 1000 Companies: 12

Bank of America Corp. (12th  $83,980.0 M), Wachovia Corp. (57th  $35,908.0 M), Duke Energy (117th  $18,944.0 M), Nucor (177th  $12,701.0 M), Sonic Automotive (276th  $8,377.6 M), Goodrich (402nd  $5,404.5 M), SPX (446th  $4,786.8 M), Ruddick (624th  $2,964.7 M), Belk (649th $ 2,692.2 M), Carlisle (680th  $2,550.5 M), Piedmont Natural Gas (871st  $1,761.1 M), Family Dollar Stores (369th  $5,824.8 M)*

*Located in Mathews, NC

Pros

Charlotte’s greatest strengths lie in its market size (both local and regional), as well as the exceptionally strong corporate base in and around the city. The median family income is strong as well, ranking highest in this list. Repeatedly, Charlotte was mentioned as a possible relocation destination for the Expos, and as recently as 2005 was on the “Marlins Relocation Tour”.

I should mention that you could flip a coin with my #2 and #3. Either of their fortunes is tied to the political landscape at any given time a relocation or expansion were to arrive. Both markets have very different strengths and weaknesses that could play a factor at a given time.

Cons

Charlotte’s fortunes are negatively impacted by, of all teams, the Washington Nationals, almost 400 miles away. The relocation of the Expos to D.C. was tied to a regional sports network (MASN) for Orioles owner Peter Angelos. That means the broadcast territory for the Nationals and the Orioles reaches to Charlotte, which also means it may be a good long while before MLB has any notion of trying to cannibalize a television market that was hard fought for by Angelos. Add in the fact that the NBA Hornets relocated to New Orleans when an arena didn’t arrive, thus causing the city to scramble to get a new arena built and get an NBA team back in 2005, and going after public dollars would be a tough go. Throw in the Carolina Panthers for good measure, and suddenly with an MLB team in the market you’re looking at a population base per franchise at under 500,000 – a tight squeeze in the market.

2 – Portland, OR

Population: 2,265,223 (CMSA) (Ranks – 14th)

(includes Salem, OR and Vancouver, WA)

Distance to nearest MLB market: Seattle (200 miles)

MLB Television Territories impacted: Mariners

Average Household Income: $40,885 (ranks 30th)

Television information: Ranks 23rd in DMA (1,150,320 television households)

Radio Information: Arbitron ranking – 23rd (Metro 12+ population - 2,049,600)

Number of Major League Teams: 1 (NBA Trail Blazers)

Interim/New Facility location: PGE Park (seating capacity – 20,000, expandable to 25,000)

Population base per franchise (with MLB team): 1,132,611

Number of  Fortune 1000 Companies: 5

Nike (163rd, $13,739.7 M Revenues)*, Precision Castparts (579th, $3,212.5 M), StanCorp Financial (731st  $2,337.2 M ), Schnitzer Steel Industries (757th $2,572.3 M), Portland General Electric (962th $1,743.0 M)

*Located in Beaverton, OR.

Pros

Portland worked hard in 2003 to come up with a financing plan, and actually pulled off State funding that never sunsets. With Oregon having a State income tax, the law on the books provides up to $150 million in funding by earmarking the income taxes the players (both home and away) as well as executives to pay off the debt service. Portland also has the fully vetted finance plan they submitted to MLB as a jumping off spot. The plan outlines aspects such as local funding concepts, possible site locations, and 2003 figures for construction costs which could be reused to calculate costs at a later time.

Portland is also home to Nike, as well as adidas’ North American headquarters, making a possible sponsorship tug-of-war a possibility (would Nike allow “adidas Field” in their own backyard?).

Lastly, the sad news of late that the Seattle SuperSonics have relocated to Oklahoma City makes the possibility of the Blazers becoming a regional entity. That aspect may lend itself as an advantage, should MLB ever come calling.

Cons

While Portland can siphon population from Washington State’s Clark County, go much further north than Longview (approx 45 miles away) and it’s solid Mariners territory. And, the fact is, Portland is deeply entrenched in the Mariners marketing plans. A team in Portland would not sit well with the AL team to the north.

Other negatives revolve around the market itself. While it is the largest market with only one major league franchise, with the exception of Salem, and Eugene, 100 miles to the south, there are pockets of rural area all around the city. The small number of large corporations is also not a strong point for Portland.

While television ratings have been far above the national average, and a considerable percentage of fans from Portland make the 200 mile trip to Seattle to get their MLB fix, the market would have to overachieve from an attendance perspective beyond any honeymoon effect. All this against a political landscape that, while improving with incoming mayor Sam Adams over current mayor Tom Potter, isn’t exactly “business friendly” at this time.

1 – Northern New Jersey

Population: 21,199,865 (CMSA) (Ranks – 1st)

(considered New York--Northern New Jersey--Long Island, NY--NJ--CT--PA CMSA)

Distance to nearest MLB market: New York (Bronx) (22 miles, from Newark), Flushing (17.5 miles from Newark), Philadelphia (85 miles from Newark)

MLB Television Territories impacted: Yankees, Mets

Average Household Income: $39,937 (New York ranks 37th)

Television information: (New York) Ranks 1st in DMA (7,391,940 television households)

Radio Information: Arbitron ranking – 1st (New York Metro 12+ population - 15,345,000)

Number of Major League Teams (NY plus NJ): 10 (11 including WNBA Liberty) (New Jersey Devils – NHL, New York Islanders – NHL, New York Rangers – NHL, MetroStars – MLS, New Jersey Nets – NBA, New York Knicks – NBA, New York Yankees – MLB, New York Mets – MLB, New York Jets – NFL, New York Giants – NFL)

Interim/New Facility location: Unknown.

Population base per franchise (with MLB team): 1,766,656

Number of  Fortune 1000 Companies: 30

Medco Health Solutions (51st  $37,870.9 M), Prudential Financial (64th  $31,708.0 M), Honeywell Intl. (71st  $28,862.0 M), Wyeth (119th  $18,755.8 M), Public Service Enterprise Group (178th  $12,661.0 M), Toys "R" Us (208th  $11,194.0 M), Schering-Plough (250th  $9,508.0 M), Lucent Technologies (255th  $9,441.0 M), Automatic Data Proc. (271st  $8,499.1 M), Quest Diagnostics (392nd  $5,503.7 M), Becton Dickinson (397th  $5,464.4 M), Bed Bath & Beyond (419th  $5,147.7 M), Sealed Air (489th  $4,085.1 M), Cytec Industries (617th  $2,999.7 M), Linens 'n Things (656th  $2,649.3 M), IDT (698th  $2,468.5 M), C.R. Bard (866th  $1,771.3 M), Selective Insurance Group (898th  $1,696.8 M), Children's Place (908th  $1,668.7 M), Suburban Propane Partners (924th  $1,620.2 M), Dun & Bradstreet (993th  $1,443.6 M), Hudson City Bancorp (860th $2,134.8 M), Cognizant Technology Solutions (859th $2,135.6 M), Barr Pharmaceuticals (760th $2,557.6 M), DRS Technologies (707th  $2,821.1 M), Wyndham Worldwide (523rd $4,360.0 M), Realogy (414th $5,967.0 M), Avis Budget Group (411st $5,986.0), Hertz Global Holdings (304th $8,685.6 M)

Pros

It’s amazing given the large number of major league franchises that you still wind up with the New York/New Jersey area with plenty of populace, corporate base, and television and radio strength to support even more. That’s why Northern New Jersey is the #1 relocation/expansion market for MLB. Since there are caveats with every available market out there, why not go where the strongest chance of success is available?

Cons

The biggest (and probably only) thing blocking a third MLB team in the New York area are the Yankees and Mets (and yes, most likely the Phillies). The heel digging would be tremendous on these clubs' part, and the compensation to placate two or three clubs would be tremendous. Other than that issue (and yes, it’s more than an 800 lbs gorilla, to be sure), the only other issue might be an interim stadium (you could play at the Trenton Thunder’s Waterfront Park, but it only has a seating capacity of 6,500). Still, that issue of getting around the Yankees, Mets, and Phillies is massive. The political dance would be one for the ages to pull off a team in Northern New Jersey.

Conclusions

Let’s face it, no market looks great these days. All have caveats. All have something that might make you say “5 to 10 years from now.”

But, here’s the real thing. MLB isn’t even close to considering expansion, and with the Marlins, Rays, and Athletics all engaged in stadium talks in their respective markets – even if it’s a short hop (Athletics, say hello to Fremont), relocation to one of these markets would be nothing more than talk to leverage more out of the markets these clubs are already in.

Still, the exercise in examining the markets yields interesting information for the future. At some point at some time, MLB will seriously consider expansion. That will most likely coincide with revenues coming in flat or declining for the league (the expansion fees would offset a decline in revenue growth). Those days aren’t here yet, and with new revenue stream such as the upcoming MLB Network coming online in 2009, don’t expect anything more than rosy news from MLB on the finances front for at least 2-3 years. Expansion or relocation will just have to wait. Say hello again to “30”.

REFERENCES

2000 Census - Ranking Tables for Metropolitan Areas

Census – Median Household Income

Nielsen Media Research – Television Markets by DMA

Arbitron – Radio Market Rankings by Metro 12+ population

BACKGROUND

Maury Brown was part of the MLB to Portland effort from 2001 to early 2004 when the Expos were up for relocation. He worked directly with David Kahn, the former general manager of the Indiana Pacers, and the Oregon Sports Authority, which comprised two-thirds of the Oregon Stadium Campaign. His main contribution was work on the proposed Charter Seat License program. The information requested by MLB of each market at the time of the Expos relocation derby is, in large part, the basis of this published research.

Maury Brown would like to give special thanks to Craig M. Williams who assisted on this research project.

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Maury Brown is the Founder and President of the Business of Sports Network, which includes The Biz of Baseball, The Biz of Football, The Biz of Basketball and The Biz of Hockey. He is contributor to Baseball Prospectus, and is available as a freelance writer.

Brown's full bio is here. He looks forward to your comments via email and can be contacted through the Business of Sports Network.

Comments (5)

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NFL Expansion
written by Mark from ABQ, August 21, 2008

This was an excellent article.I was wondering if you do anything on the NFL. If you are as thorough on the NFL as you are on baseball it would be greatly appreciated by us NFL fans.

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British Columbia
written by BC Baseball, October 07, 2008

Why does nobody ever consider Vancouver BC as a possible expansion city. The city is half asian which would be good for marketing in Asia and there are alot of MLBers from Canada. Larry Walker, Justin Morneau, Rich Harden, Adam Loewen, and Jeff Zimmerman are all from BC. Chris Reitsma is from Calgary. Corey Koskie is from Manitoba. There is a healthy baseball presence in Western Canada and a team in Vancouver would create a great international rivalry with Seattle. If MLB wants to go international, it must start with CANADA, not Mexico, Carribean, Australia, Asia or Europe. That is a fact. Baseball is a North American game and Toronto needs a sister city in MLB if the foothold in that country wishes to exist. I would love feedback to my idea.

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...
written by The HotShoT, April 19, 2009

Excellent article.

I agree Vancouver should be considered before Montreal. Baseball has proven to not be viable there. Thats why opening a Latin market is so intriguing. Of course this is balanced out by the fact that Latin cities median incomes are generally much lower.
Given the fact that expansion will probably take a while, what about considering Havana before San Juan. Its both much closer too the mainland and a far larger city. president Obama began opening up Cuba just this week.
Also, given that expansion may be a long way off, what about baseball being part of the rebuilding of New Orleans?

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WHAT!
written by tg, December 30, 2009

NORTHERN NEW JERSEY CANNOT HAVE ANOTHER TEAM!
WE'RE ALL YANKEE FANS HERE! WHAT... AM I SUPPOSED TO ROOT FOR THE "JERSEY JAYS"...?

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You forgot one competition
written by Kevlar, December 31, 2009

In Puerto Rico, Canada, and especially Mexico, soccer is a major sport. You numbers for dividing population by "major franchises" should have considered soccer, in Mexico at the very least.

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