valtrex 500mg wikipedia generic viagra 24 hours tapering prednisone 5 mg viagra generic effectiveness viagra dubai buy acheter viagra generic buspar 30 mg day cialis 20 mg preis viagra vega 100mg cialis 10 mg information clomid generic walgreens clomid or generic buy real propecia buy periactin pills doxycycline doze 75mg novo prednisone 50mg diflucan one generic generic lexapro cvs propranolol 1 mg 1ml bactrim dose mg buying celebrex diflucan medicine online buy 40 mg levitra steroid nolvadex 5 mg online medicines cialis generic to valtrex generic viagra kamagra bangkok generic cialis indikasi doxycycline 100mg cialis 10mg works buy zovirax rx propranolol actavis 10 mg generic kamagra viagra priligy online us lilly cialis 5mg order strattera 40mg 25 mg viagra reviews buy valtrex cvs generic lexapro pill order lisinopril online cheap viagra thread generic lexapro makers generic 25mg viagra generic viagra deutschland 150 mg kamagra levitra 20 mg pricce acheter viagra 100mg will valtrex generic rx cipro 500mg strattera vs generic buspar available generic buy single cialis augmentin 475 mg dosage 50 mg viagra equivalent lexapro generic dose online viagra cheap 1000 mg cytotec dosierung viagra 25 mg kamagra tablets cheapest viagra wholesale online generic lexapro mexico generic cialis 2.5 mg cheap rx viagra order viagra condoms generic lexapro migraine erfahrungsberichte cialis 10 mg 5mg cialis everyday 40 mg of lexapro doxycycline hyc 500mg clomid 50 ou 100 mg doxycycline 500mg cipro 500buy metformin 500 mg prospect priligy generic xenical cost online cialis online arrested zithromax 250mg svenska nexium 40 mg costs purchase doxycycline 50mg valtrex generic online generic discounted viagra cheap viagra 500mg effets cialis 5mg buy cheap propecia prednisone 5 mg dogs order daily cialis diflucan compresse 100 mg clomid pct mg cheap synthroid online kamagra online cheapest viagra china online doxycycline 100mg price where buy valtrex medicamento priligy 30 mg cialis red 200mg strattera 100 mg cialis 20mg costco propranolol 40 mg buy buy prescribed cialis doxycycline 100mg zastosowanie cost generic zoloft cialis 20mg lily augmentin suspension 200 mg cialis tablet 5mg 30 mg prednisone diabetes tetracycline 500 mg recall 60 mg viagra levitra goes generic levitra generic vs valtrex australia buy viagra 100mg discount prijs viagra 100mg buy priligy usa wellbutrin generic doses propecia cheap forum online viagra bestellen 400 mgs zoloft 10 mg di cialis took 40mg cialis generic valtrex pills cheaper propecia generic viagra rd buy cipro canada propecia 1 mg 28 tablets kamagra generic4all doxycycline online buy kamagra 100mg ajanta 75 mg zoloft lot buy bactrim 800 propecia online 5 mg 25mg clomid pct lasix 40 mg bestellen 150 mg viagra online augmentin 400 mg good generic viagra lexapro 20 mg overdose lisinopril 5mg cost viagra online bulk kamagra jelly online nexium online paypal lexapro generic prescription lexapro generic review propranolol 10 mg pill viagra 100 mg effects xenical 120mg philippines 20mg levitra equal xenical 120 mg composition lexapro 10 mg daily buy viagra login viagra 60mg kamagra 100 mg tweedehands viagra online without lisinopril 40 mg information nolvadex hoeveel mg venda viagra generico doxycycline generic vibramycin lexapro generic formula viagra generic forum viagra generic 24 effet viagra 50 mg valor nexium 40mg walmart propecia generic cialis 20 or 40mg ordering generic cialis cialis 20 mg foro cialis 20mg ireland viagra online check generic viagra boots tetracycline backorder kamagra buy cheap cheap viagra sample genericos de lisinopril buy kamagra manchester nolvadex generico clomid buy lasix 80 mg buy online viagra danger buy levitra melbourne buy zoloft generic erythromycin capsules 500mg hongkong buying cialis cytotec 0 2 mg xenical 120 mg packungsbeilage augmentin suspension 400 mg metformin hcl 1500mg zoloft 50 mg bivirkninger 40 mg cialis online wellbutrin sr buy nolvadex online cheap precios cialis generico lexapro 7.5 mg priligy generico ecuador viagra generico 100 mg levitra onlinebestellen order 24 hour cialis ip nolvadex 20mg buy ip cialis thuoc lexapro 10mg celebrex 200mg buy composition cialis 20mg doxycycline monohydrate 50mg 50 mg viagra fiyati augmentin 825 mg dosage cheap viagra pompharmacy zithromax 40 mg antybiotyk kamagra sales online augmentin 875 mg pregnancy buy viagra leicester doxycycline 80mg zoloft 50 mg bula 50mg viagra prices generic viagra germany celebrex online sales generic levitra brazil xenical 60 capsules online 20 mg cialis cheap generic cialis 5mg cap doxycycline 400 mg erythromycin 500mg qds generic lexapro cheap levitra 20 mg 4 tablet jual cialis online cialis online berlin nexium prilosec generic wellbutrin 350 mg generic viagra buy 40mg lasix cialis 50mg levitra 20 mg information xenical online cheapest generic 3 day cialis lexapro 10 mg pe sinoretik lisinopril 20 mg kamagra buy line buy amoxil generic viagra generico masticable bactrim tablet 400mg metformin 500 mg tablets diflucan 7cps 50 mg augmentin alcohol 875 mg cialis safely online tamoxifen clomid buy lexapro alternatives cheaper cialis 5 mg vs 10 buspar 30 mg high walgreens viagra generic clomid 25mg cena buy clomid without cialis once online generic cialis 20 metformin 1500 mg augmentin 1000 mg fiyati cialis 10 mg preisvergleich cialis online deutchland levitra 10 mg funciona prednisone 20mg com doxycycline 100mg pregnant sprzedam cialis 5mg generic propecia erfahrung wellbutrin generic coupon hydrochlorothiazide 25 mg 3571 cialis online vipps cheap priced viagra levitra 5 mg posologie cialis 100mg wirkung cialis 20mg dose buy dapoxetine malaysia ic lisinopril 40 mg celebrex 200mg cena propecia generic online cialis 20mg erfahrungen cialis 5 mg farmacia valtrex buy generic generico viagra andorra zithromax iv 500 mg generic150 mg viagra cialis 20 mg soft methylprednisolone 20 mg prednisone generic wellbutrin online anagen viagra generico celebrex 100 mgs generic nexium otc priligy uk online to buy diflucan clomid buying nz price 1000 20 mg lisinopril buy lasix usa viagra 100mg ejaculation propecia generic merck ordering wellbutrin online valtrex valacyclovir 500mg 12 online generic viagra 100mg viagra facts buy pet prednisone cialis generico argentina buy levitra sverige metformin 500 mg ovulation celebrex 200mg malaysia celebrex 200mg caps 30 strattera 25 mgs teva metformin 500 mg order viagra pessaries buying women viagra 200 mg doxycycline chlamydia zoloft 350 mg wellbutrin anxiety disorders viagra 50mg pfizer viagra 10mg email lexapro equivalent generic dapoxetine generic cheap cialis online legit 20mg lexapro depression cialis online kupovina lexapro generic buy 10mg lexapro alot online cialis ricetta 30 mg dose levitra viagra buying 20 mg of lisinopril generic name lasix generic wellbutrin 100mg lexapro withdrawal 5 mg worlds cheapest cialis cialis cheap fedex buy 200 mg viagra priligy buy 4mg viagra tablets lexapro 20 mg vs 10 precio zoloft 50 mg xenical 120 mg wiki cialis 40 mg dosage priligy da 30 mg lexapro generic out zoloft online cheap prednisone 50 mg dogs cialis 20 mg usa buy bactrim 800 mg buy 10 500mg cipro metformin 2550 mg beli xenical online doxycycline 100mg zonlicht generic cialis rualis cialis price 5mg buy viagra portland levitra 10 mg 2 compresse buy nexium twitter legal viagra online buy propecia germany zoloft 12.5mg viagra 25mg australia generic nolvadex tamoxifen cialis 10 mg nebenwirkung viagra 25 mg efectos generic viagra typepad diflucan 150 mg cost nexium online order xenical roche order 25 mg clomid twins levitra 20 mg tablet viagra generic formula doxycycline 100 mg indikasi levitra 20 mg siparis order valtrex overnight order zovirax acyclovir online pharmacy levitra valtrex online australia original kamagra 100 mg lexapro 5mg ce amoxil 500 mg acne wellbutrin 15mg online viagra perscriptions celebrex generic form lexapro generic status bay cialis online 40 vs 20 mg cialis achat viagra 100mg buspar 10mg high cialis de 05 mg cialis 2.5mg walgreens cialis australia 5mg xenical genericas viagra buy cancun cheap viagra virus cheapest cost nexium calvizie propecia 0.25 mg order levitra cialis celebrex generic mobic viagra 50 mg virkning erythromycin generic equivalent celebrex 100 mg capsules metformin 1000 mg benefits buy veterinary prednisone xenical online generic lexapro 20mg 10mg 100mg viagra directions venta online cytotec lupin lisinopril 40 mg prednisone apotex 5 mg lasix 20mg tbl order brand viagra cialis 5 mg efficace valtrex cheap online 100mg clomid 6 days levitra 10mg shape cvs cialis 10mg lexapro bipolar 2 disorder buy prednisone cialis generic timeline generico viagra ultrafarma costo levitra 5mg zovirax ointment order toko viagra online propranolol stada 40 mg trial viagra online viagra online worldwide generic cialis mexico 100mg viagra duration viagra pricing 50 mg viagra buy generic cialis us erythromycin 1000 mg acne doxycycline 200 mg efectos viagra online 25mg cialis 5 mg gabapentin buy cialis tesco order viagra usa nexium price 40mg lexapro dosage 15 mg price 30 cialis 5 mg synthroid generic 2012 kamagra india online strattera buy online cialis 60 mg generic cipro 500 mg endikasyonlari celebrex 200mg pills cheap cipla viagra viagra 100 mg dozowanie buy kamagra 7 days levitra 20 mg 300 mg doxycycline day comprar xenical 60 mg cheap propecia london cialis 20 mg efficacia levitra original online 5 mg of levitra cialis jelly 20mg ordering nexium online clomid pharmacy online bactrim generic online assunzione cialis 10 mg generic cialis exist kamagra 200mg kaufen cialis genericas levitra 10 mg endikasyonlari sertraline zoloft 50 mg wellbutrin prescription online taking generic viagra nombre generico amoxil lisinopril 40mg tablets metformin tab 500mg lexapro depersonalization disorder metformin ratio 1000 mg 30 cialis 5mg cheap price propecia levitra generico 25 gr propranolol lp 80 mg viagra 25 mg ausreichend thuoc augmentin 125 mg diflucan fast online precio levitra 5mg 300 mg zoloft dosage clomid 50mg days 3 7 pret viagra 0.25mg nexium generic release levitra 10 mg acquista propecia brand order 25 mg de zoloft online viagra siparis generic nexium 2013 buy cialis jakarta buy lexapro generic viagra online reato celebrex 200 mg fda 10mg kamagra para metformin 500 mg thai generic viagra generic viagra dublin china online cialis prednisone 10mg buy cialis 10 mg 2013 sweden buy viagra max viagra 100mg online cialis stores acheter cialis 20mg cialis 5mg tallinna viagra 25 mg nebenwirkungen levitra 20mg dose manfaat levitra 5 mg levitra 20mg instructions cheapest cialis 40 mg
Home Maury Brown So Far, Giants Fans Snore Through Home Run Chase

Like Shoot to Thrill - An AC/DC Tribute on Facebook!

An authentic tribute of AC/DC that covers the best of the Bon Scott era and the best of Brian Johnson's material

Who's Online?

We have 1130 guests online

Atom RSS

So Far, Giants Fans Snore Through Home Run Chase PDF Print E-mail
User Rating: / 4
PoorBest 
Written by Maury Brown   
Saturday, 19 May 2007 07:28

Barry BondsDuring this past off-season, one of the biggest stories revolved around which uniform Barry Bonds might wind up wearing. It seemed that the list of suitors for Bonds’ services would be long—regardless of the cloud of the BALCO investigation hanging over his head—given the near certainty he would surpass Henry Aaron for the all-time home run record, and with that, the ringing of cash registers at the gate.

When the Giants signed a one-year $ $15.8 million deal with him in early February of this year, they banked on that logic, and with that, have looked for increases in attendance.

Too bad that hasn’t transpired... yet. And, by the way, "yet" might be a stretch.

With Bonds now 10 home runs from tying Aaron for the all-time home run record, the difference in attendance for the Giants between last season and this season is almost indiscernible. Even in the supposed safe-haven of San Francisco, the home run chase by Bonds is on the verge of being meaningless when using attendance as the barometer.

Looking at the first twenty-two home games from 2006 and 2007, gives attendance for the 2007 season an advantage of 1,323 in paid attendance over last season—a variation that could be related to nothing more than good weather, or other factors, Bonds’ chase possibly included.

For example, over the first seven games of the season at AT&T Park, average attendance was 40,821 compared to 37,580 for the same period last season.

During the stretch, Bonds hit numbers 16 and 15 in the countdown to tying Aaron.

But, the difference of 3,241 can be accounted for a couple of different ways.

The two series for this season saw the Padres and the Dodgers, compared to the Braves and Astros in 2006. While the levels for the Padres and Braves series were nearly identical, the Dodgers far outdrew the 41,529 to 33,651 due to the Astros games being initially rained out, and then made up on a mid-week double header that drew an average 33,651.

Add in the fact that the Dodgers are a better draw than the Astros in San Francisco, and the gap becomes all the more clear.

When taking in the total attendance for this year and last, if one adjusts for those two games with the Astros that were postponed and replayed, the gap in total attendance thus far this season shrinks to just above 1,200; hardly anything that can point to anything other than lukewarm interest in “The Chase” at this point.

How does that impact the bottom line?

Using this year’s Team Marketing Report, the Giants have an average ticket price of $25.11. Using the attendance difference from last season to 2007, the Giants have an increase of $32,316.57—a figure that if it were solely attributed to Bonds (which is isn't) would nary a dent in the costs to retain him. Yes, there are other revenues to associate with Bonds countdown, but if you said television, at least on the local level, it is not one of them. Since television contracts are worked up in advance, it’s not as if the Giants pull in more or less depending on interest—or lack thereof in Bonds’ chase of Aaron.

In fairness, this snapshot should not be viewed as what will transpire from home runs 745 to when he reaches 755. There will surely be a rise in attendance over the course of those games. Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus gives Bonds a 90% chance of passing Aaron by July 5th, or 21 games in which the Giants can hope to milk The Chase for all its worth.

That is, if Bonds and opposing pitchers play along and stretch the dingers out that far.

Davenport also gives Bonds a 50% chance of reaching Aaron by June 16th, clipping the number of Home games to just 12, or just over half as many games for the Giants to gain the extra revenues from.

But, it seems more than clear that the costs of Bonds contract have to be weighed against the total number of wins he provides. That's where the real value of a player contract is at, above what he can bring through the turnstiles as a marquee player. Using Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, Bonds should have a WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) of 3.5 for 2007.

With the Giants sitting a game under .500 (fourth in the NL West), and the lackluster interest in “Bonds: The Home Run Story”, at this point, the Bonds contract is a bad deal. The Giants will have little hope in extracting a mountain of cash for just the home run chase. As with every team, the value will come at the end of the season when the Giants, make, or fail to reach the playoffs. At that point, you might reap the benefits of the wins Bonds would bring. 

Until that time, however, it seems the nation snores over the countdown, and worse, so does San Francisco.

The Giants (and some fans) may scoff at this claim. After all, they are holding down 7th in overall attendance (92.5% of capacity) so far this season. Not bad, right? But, in the context of the home run chase, and where attendance has been in the past, there should be movement up, not down. Here is attendance for the last six seasons:

 Year Attendance (avg)
% of Capacity
Rank 
 2001 40,888 100.2 2nd
 2002 40,163
 98.4 3rd
 2003 40,307 97.1 3rd
 2004 40,232 96.9 5th
 2005 39,259 94.5 5th
 2006 38,645 93.0 7th
* 2007 38,411 92.5 7th

* Through 21 games at AT&T Park

Source: ESPN

Got something to say about the Bonds home run chase? Add your comments on this subject. Also, don't forget to vote in our online poll on the Bonds watch.  

Maury Brown is the founder and president of The Biz of Baseball and a contributor to Baseball Prospectus. He can be contacted here.  

 
 
Banner

Poll

Should MLB Force Jeffery Loria to Sell the Marlins?